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Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization

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  • Andrew N. Greenland
  • Mihai Ion
  • John W. Lopresti
  • Peter K. Schott
Abstract
We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service sector responses to trade liberalizations as well as dramatically different responses among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27510
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    6. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2020. "The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment," NBER Working Papers 27114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Liyan Han & Lei Li & Huiyi Liao & Libo Yin, 2024. "Hedging Along the Global Value Chain: Trade War and Firm Value," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_531, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    10. Alan Feng & Haishi Li & Yulin Wang, 2023. "We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks through International Trade and Supply Chain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10402, CESifo.
    11. Suwanprasert, Wisarut, 2022. "The international spillover effects of US trade policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    12. Chen, Tao & Gao, Huasheng & Wang, Yuxi, 2021. "Tariff uncertainty and firm innovation: Evidence from the U.S.–China Permanent Normal Trade Relation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 12-27.
    13. Tao Chen & Chen Lin & Xiang Shao, 2022. "Globalization and U.S. Corporate Tax Policies: Evidence from Import Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6145-6162, August.
    14. Ruxue Bai & Lei Li & Ying Li & Libo Yin, 2024. "Diversification or Specialization? The Responses of Multi-Product Exporters to Quota Removal," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_533, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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