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Demand Shocks, Procurement Policies, and the Nature of Medical Innovation: Evidence from Wartime Prosthetic Device Patents

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  • Jeffrey Clemens
  • Parker Rogers
Abstract
We analyze wartime prosthetic device patents to investigate how procurement policy affects the cost, quality, and quantity of medical innovation. Analyzing whether inventions emphasize cost and/or quality requires generating new data. We do this by first hand-coding the economic traits emphasized in 1,200 patent documents. We then train a machine learning algorithm and apply the trained models to a century's worth of medical and mechanical patents that form our analysis sample. In our analysis of these new data, we find that the relatively stingy, fixed-price contracts of the Civil War era led inventors to focus broadly on reducing costs, while the less cost-conscious procurement contracts of World War I did not. We provide a conceptual framework that highlights the economic forces that drive this key finding. We also find that inventors emphasized dimensions of product quality (e.g., a prosthetic's appearance or comfort) that aligned with differences in buyers' preferences across wars. Finally, we find that the Civil War and World War I procurement shocks led to substantial increases in the quantity of prosthetic device patenting relative to patenting in other medical and mechanical technology classes. We conclude that procurement environments can significantly shape the scientific problems with which inventors engage, including the choice to innovate on quality or cost.

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  • Jeffrey Clemens & Parker Rogers, 2020. "Demand Shocks, Procurement Policies, and the Nature of Medical Innovation: Evidence from Wartime Prosthetic Device Patents," NBER Working Papers 26679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26679
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    4. Jeffrey P. Clemens & Morten Olsen, 2021. "Medicare and the Rise of American Medical Patenting: The Economics of User-Driven Innovation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9008, CESifo.
    5. Gamba, Simona & Magazzini, Laura & Pertile, Paolo, 2021. "R&D and market size: Who benefits from orphan drug legislation?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Agarwal, Ruchir & Gaule, Patrick, 2022. "What drives innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Yeon-Koo Che & Elisabetta Iossa & Patrick Rey, 2021. "Prizes versus Contracts as Incentives for Innovation [Subgame Perfect Implementation Under Information Perturbations]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2149-2178.
    8. Dranove, David & Garthwaite, Craig & Heard, Christopher & Wu, Bingxiao, 2022. "The economics of medical procedure innovation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Martin Beraja & David Y Yang & Noam Yuchtman, 2023. "Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from AI Firms in China," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1701-1723.
    10. Enrico Berkes & Davide M. Coluccia & Gaia Dossi & Mara P. Squicciarini, 2023. "Dealing with adversity: Religiosity or science? Evidence from the great influenza pandemic," POID Working Papers 068, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Rogers, Parker, 2022. "Regulating the Innovators: Approval Costs and Innovation in Medical Technologies," SocArXiv c8s3m, Center for Open Science.
    12. Enrico Berkes & Davide M. Coluccia & Gaia Dossi & Mara P. Squicciarini, 2023. "Dealing with adversity: religiosity or science? Evidence from the great influenza pandemic," CEP Discussion Papers dp1927, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Naudé, Wim & Dimitri, Nicola, 2021. "Public Procurement and Innovation for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence," IZA Discussion Papers 14021, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Francesco Decarolis & Gaétan de Rassenfosse & Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Elisabetta Iossa & Vincenzo Mollisi & Emilio Raiteri & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2021. "Buyers' role in innovation procurement: Evidence from US military R&D contracts," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 697-720, November.
    15. Dupraz, Yannick & Ferrara, Andreas, 2021. "Fatherless: The Long-Term Effects of Losing a Father in the U.S. Civil War," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 538, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
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    17. Chiappinelli, Olga & Giuffrida, Leonardo M. & Spagnolo, Giancarlo, 2023. "Public procurement as an innovation policy: Where do we stand?," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-002, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    20. Berkes, Enrico & Coluccia, Davide M. & Dossi, Gaia Greta & Squicciarini, Mara P., 2023. "Dealing with adversity: religiosity or science? Evidence from the great influenza pandemic," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121318, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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