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Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies

Author

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  • Georgy Egorov
  • Konstantin Sonin
Abstract
In elections that take place in a less-than-perfect democracy, incumbency advantages are different from those in mature democracies. The incumbent can prevent credible challengers from running, organize vote fraud, or even physically eliminate his main opponents. At the same time, formally winning the election does not guarantee staying in power. We present a unified model of elections and mass protests where the purpose of competitive elections is to reveal information about the relative popularity of the incumbent and the opposition. Citizens are heterogenous in their attitudes toward the dictator, and these individual preferences serve as private signals about the aggregate distribution of preferences; this ensures a unique equilibrium for any information the incumbent may reveal. We show that the most competent or popular dictators run in competitive elections, mediocre ones prevent credible opponents from running or cancel elections, and the least competent ones use outright repressions. A strong opposition makes competitive elections more likely but also increases the probability of repression. A totalitarian regime, where repression is cheaper, will have more repression, but even in the absence of repression, competitive elections will be rarer. A crueler, say, military, regime, where protesting is costly, makes repression less likely and, surprisingly, competitive elections more likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies," NBER Working Papers 20519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude & Okoye, Dozie & Turan, Belgi, 2020. "Expressway to Power: Infrastructure Projects and Political Support," IZA Discussion Papers 13795, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2019. "Stability of revolutionary governments in the face of mass protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Emmanuelle Auriol & Jean-Philippe Platteau & Thierry Verdier, 2023. "The Quran and the Sword," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 1772-1820.
    6. Basu, Pathikrit & Dutta, Souvik & Shekhar, Suraj, 2019. "Ethnic conflicts with informed agents: A cheap talk game with multiple audiences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Egorov, Georgy & Sonin, Konstantin, 2015. "The killing game: A theory of non-democratic succession," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 398-411.
    8. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Platteau, Jean-Philippe & Verdier, Thierry, 2020. "The Quran and the Sword: The Strategic Game Between Autocratic Power, the Military and the Clerics," CEPR Discussion Papers 14712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Xie, Yinxi & Xie, Yang, 2017. "Machiavellian experimentation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 685-711.
    10. David Szakonyi, 2020. "Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Fraud in Russia," Working Papers 2020-23, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. Mehdi Shadmehr & Dan Bernhardt, 2015. "State Censorship," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 280-307, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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