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Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes

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  • Marc Morjé Howard
  • Philip G. Roessler
Abstract
In the wake of the third wave of democratization, competitive authoritarianism has emerged as a prominent regime type. These regimes feature regular, competitive elections between a government and an opposition, but the incumbent leader or party typically resorts to coercion, intimidation, and fraud to attempt to ensure electoral victory. Despite the incumbent's reliance on unfair practices to stay in power, such elections occasionally result in what we call a “liberalizing electoral outcome” (LEO), which often leads to a new government that is considerably less authoritarian than its predecessor. Using a “nested” research design that employs both cross‐national statistical analysis and a case study of Kenya, we seek to explain how and why LEOs occur. Our findings highlight in particular the importance of the choices made by opposition elites to form a strategic coalition for the purpose of mounting a credible challenge to the ruling party or candidate in national elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Morjé Howard & Philip G. Roessler, 2006. "Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 365-381, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:50:y:2006:i:2:p:365-381
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00189.x
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    1. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Brownlee, 2009. "Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 515-532, July.
    2. Morrison, Kelly & Savun, Burcu & Donno, Daniela & Davutoglu, Perisa, 2023. "Competing Verdicts: Multiple Election Monitors and Post-Election Contention," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt3kc4f57j, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    3. Kim, Nam Kyu & Kroeger, Alex, 2017. "Rewarding the introduction of multiparty elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 164-181.
    4. Youngho Cho, 2014. "Appraising the Quality of Democracy as a Developmental Phenomenon: How South Koreans Appraise the Quality of Their Democracy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 699-712, May.
    5. Michael K Miller, 2013. "Electoral authoritarianism and democracy: A formal model of regime transitions," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(2), pages 153-181, April.
    6. Sonin, Konstantin & Egorov, Georgy, 2014. "Incumbency Advantage in Non-Democracies," CEPR Discussion Papers 10178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Jennifer Raymond Dresden, 2017. "From combatants to candidates: Electoral competition and the legacy of armed conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 240-263, May.
    8. Mariam Mufti, 2018. "What Do We Know about Hybrid Regimes after Two Decades of Scholarship?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(2), pages 112-119.
    9. Henrikas BartuseviÄ ius & Svend-Erik Skaaning, 2018. "Revisiting democratic civil peace," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 625-640, September.
    10. Beatriz Magaloni, 2010. "The Game of Electoral Fraud and the Ousting of Authoritarian Rule," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 751-765, July.
    11. Danielle Resnick, 2011. "Are Electoral Coalitions Harmful for Democratic Consolidation in Africa?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Alexander Baturo, 2007. "Presidential Succession and Democratic Transitions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp209, IIIS.
    13. O. Fiona Yap, 2021. "Local politics for democratic quality and depth: Lessons from South Korea," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 5-14, January.
    14. Timothy Frye & John Reuter & David Szakonyi, 2012. "Political Machines at Work: Voter Mobilization and Electoral Subversion in the Workplace," HSE Working papers WP BRP 08/PS/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Sonin, Konstantin & Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2013. "Technological Foundations of Political Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9787, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Firoz Ahmed & Roland Hodler & Asad Islam, 2024. "Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1303-1330.
    17. González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2018. "Can television bring down a dictator? Evidence from Chile’s “No” campaign," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 349-361.
    18. Arshad, 2017. "Challenges to Democratization Process in Algeria," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 4(3), pages 254-277, September.
    19. Anthony J. Evans, 2024. "Competitive authoritarianism, informational authoritarianism, and the development of dictatorship: a case study of Belarus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 343-360, March.
    20. Rachel M. Gisselquist & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Melissa Samarin, 2021. "Does aid support democracy?: A systematic review of the literature," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-14, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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