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Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics

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  • Kinda Hachem
  • Jing Cynthia Wu
Abstract
We propose a new framework for understanding the effectiveness of central bank announcements when firms have heterogeneous inflation expectations. Expectations are updated through social dynamics and, with heterogeneity, not all firms choose to operate, putting downward pressure on realized inflation. Our model rationalizes why countries stuck at the zero lower bound have had a hard time increasing inflation without being aggressive. The same model also predicts that announcing an abrupt target to disinflate will cause inflation to undershoot the target whereas announcing gradual targets will not. We present new empirical evidence that corroborates this prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Kinda Hachem & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 20161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20161
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Choi & Andrew Foerster, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 333-346, October.
    2. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    3. Chengcheng Jia & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2021. "Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency And Intentional Ambiguity," Working Papers 21-19R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 01 Feb 2022.
    4. Jia, Chengcheng & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2023. "Average inflation targeting: Time inconsistency and ambiguous communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 69-86.
    5. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    6. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal Verbrugge, 2023. "Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 559-576, March.
    7. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2023. "A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: a bibliometric analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 279-302, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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