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The Voice of Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Tho Pham
  • Oleksandr Talavera
Abstract
We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Fed’s actions and the sentiment in policy texts, positive tone in the voices of Fed Chairs leads to statistically significant and economically large increases in share prices. In other words, how policy messages are communicated can move the stock market. In contrast, the bond market appears to take few vocal cues from the Chairs. Our results provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank communications.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 28592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28592
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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