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The Effect of Trade and Migration on Income

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  • Francesc Ortega
  • Giovanni Peri
Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between openness to trade and to immigration on income per person. To address endogeneity concerns we extend the instrumental-variables strategy first used by Frankel and Romer (1999). We show that distance (geographical and cultural) can be used to build a strong predictor of openness to immigration and to trade. Our instrumental-variables estimates establish a robust, positive effect of openness to immigration on long-run income per capita, using demanding econometric specifications that account for trade openness, the role of institutions, and early development. In contrast the positive effect of trade openness on income is not robust to controlling for the direct effects of geography, providing support for the critique by Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001). We also show that the main effect of migration operates through total factor productivity, consistent with a theory where immigration increases the variety of skills available for production. We provide further evidence in support of this mechanism by showing that the degree of diversity (by origin country) in migration flows has an additional positive effect on income. Finally, we also find that immigration increases (ethnic and linguistic) fractionalization, which are associated to negative effects on income per capita. However, the direct gains from greater skill diversity appear to be larger than the costs arising from increased fractionalization. We do not find evidence of increased income inequality due to openness to immigration or trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2012. "The Effect of Trade and Migration on Income," NBER Working Papers 18193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18193
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    3. Egger, Peter H. & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Nelson, Douglas R., 2020. "The trade effects of skilled versus unskilled migration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 448-464.
    4. Li, Baoxi & Cheng, Shixiong & Xiao, De, 2020. "The impacts of environmental pollution and brain drain on income inequality," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Max Nathan, 2014. "The wider economic impacts of high-skilled migrants: a survey of the literature for receiving countries," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "Migration, technology diffusion and convergence in a two-country AK Growth Model," MPRA Paper 115340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 101-138, June.
    8. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "The effect of income and immigration policies on international migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 11, pages 333-360, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Dr Max Nathan, 2013. "The wider economic impacts of high-skilled migrants: a survey of the literature," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 413, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    10. Aparna Sharma & Ruchi Sharma & Sidheswar Panda, 2022. "The role of technological capabilities and gap in the cross-country patenting: an empirical investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-27, February.
    11. Gao, Cuixia & Tao, Simin & He, Yuyang & Su, Bin & Sun, Mei & Mensah, Isaac Adjei, 2021. "Effect of population migration on spatial carbon emission transfers in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    12. Heiland, Inga & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2022. "Heterogeneous workers, trade, and migration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Campaniello, Nadia, 2014. "The causal effect of trade on migration: Evidence from countries of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 223-233.

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    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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