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A Gravity Model of Migration between ENC and EU

Author

Listed:
  • Ramos, Raul

    (University of Barcelona)

  • Surinach, Jordi

    (University of Barcelona)

Abstract
Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos, Raul & Surinach, Jordi, 2013. "A Gravity Model of Migration between ENC and EU," IZA Discussion Papers 7700, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7700
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    Cited by:

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    2. Макаров В.Л.i & * & Бахтизин А.Р.i & Бекларян Г.Л.i & Акопов А.С.i & Ровенская Е.А.ii & ** & Стрелковский Н.Вii., 2019. "Укрупненная Агент-Ориентированная Имитационная Модель Миграционных Потоков Стран Европейского Союза," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 3-15, январь.
    3. Dieter von Fintel & Eldridge Moses, 2017. "Migration and gender in South Africa: following bright lights and the fortunes of others?," Working Papers 09/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2018.
    4. Koji Murayama & Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Toward Coexistence of Immigrants and Local People in Japan: Implications from Spatial Assimilation Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Carlier, Guillaume & Dupuy, Arnaud & Galichon, Alfred & Sun, Yifei, 2021. "SISTA: Learning Optimal Transport Costs under Sparsity Constraints," IZA Discussion Papers 14397, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The estimation and interpretation of coefficients in panel gravity models of migration," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 9-15, April.
    7. Raul Ramos, 2019. "Migration aspirations among youth in the Middle East and North Africa region," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 487-507, December.
    8. Dinçer, Gönül, 2014. "Turkey’s Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 61979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Migration Aspirations among NEETs in Selected MENA Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 11146, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Ramos-Álvarez, Maria J. & Gómez-Gómez, Alma A. & Pérez-Soto, Francisco & Hernández-Álvarez, Zenón, 2019. "Determinantes de la emigración de mexicanos al extranjero: aplicación de la ecuación de gravedad," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 14(51), pages 30-44, Segundo s.
    11. Guo, Rufei & Zhang, Junsen & Zhou, Minghai, 2024. "The demography of the great migration in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Dinçer Dedeoğlu & H. Deniz Genç, 2017. "Turkish migration to Europe: a modified gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Lorenz Benedikt Fischer, 2019. "Migration’s inability to alleviate regional disparities: the grass is still greener on the other side of the fence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 5-29, February.
    14. Raul Ramos, 2016. "Gravity models: A tool for migration analysis," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 239-239, February.
    15. Gayane L. Beklaryan & Andranik S. Akopov, 2019. "Modelling the Efficiency of the Use of Production and Investment Resources at the Regional Level: The Case of Russia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 151-166.
    16. María Gutiérrez-Portilla & Adolfo Maza & María Hierro, 2018. "Foreigners versus natives in Spain: different migration patterns? Any changes in the aftermath of the crisis?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-159, July.
    17. Dinçer, Gönül & Muratoğlu, Yusuf, 2014. "Türkiye’den Oecd Ülkelerine Gerçekleşen Göçün Çekim Modeli İle Analizi [Immigration to the Oecd Countries from Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach]," MPRA Paper 62201, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity model; EU neighbouring countries; bilateral migration; push and pull migration factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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