[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14290.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard Hoberg
  • Gordon M. Phillips
Abstract
We examine how product market competition affects firm cash flows and stock returns in industry booms and busts. In competitive industries, we find that high industry-level stock-market valuation, investment and new financing are followed by sharply lower operating cash flows and abnormal stock returns. We also find that analyst estimates are positively biased and returns comove more when industry valuations are high in competitive industries. In concentrated industries these relations are weak and generally insignificant. Our results suggest that when industry stock-market valuations are high, firms and investors in competitive industries do not fully internalize the negative externality of industry competition on cash flows and stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Hoberg & Gordon M. Phillips, 2008. "Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts," NBER Working Papers 14290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14290
    Note: AP CF
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14290.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1749-1790 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:65-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 823-845.
    8. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    9. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2007. "Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 619-650.
    10. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
    11. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2577-2603 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    14. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
    15. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    16. C.C. von Weizsaker, 1980. "A Welfare Analysis of Barriers to Entry," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(2), pages 399-420, Autumn.
    17. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    18. Peter M. DeMarzo & Ron Kaniel & Ilan Kremer, 2008. "Relative Wealth Concerns and Financial Bubbles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 19-50, January.
    19. David Scharfstein, 1988. "Product-Market Competition and Managerial Slack," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(1), pages 147-155, Spring.
    20. Kewei Hou & David T. Robinson, 2006. "Industry Concentration and Average Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1927-1956, August.
    21. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
    22. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei, 2003. "Style investing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 161-199, May.
    23. Perry, Martin K, 1984. "Scale Economies, Imperfect Competition, and Public Policy," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 313-333, March.
    24. N. Gregory Mankiw & Michael D. Whinston, 1986. "Free Entry and Social Inefficiency," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 48-58, Spring.
    25. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, K. C. John & Xie, Feixue, 2004. "Capital Investments and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 677-700, December.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1717-1742 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2685-2718 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Albert S. Kyle & Wei Xiong, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.
    2. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson, 2010. "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Papers 15948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Zhang, Zhou, 2023. "Competition, investment reversibility, and equity risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    6. R. L. N. Murthy & Hardeep Singh Mundi, 2023. "Stock Return Synchronicity and Profitability: Evidence from India," Paradigm, , vol. 27(1), pages 47-59, June.
    7. Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Huang, Chia-Wei, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk and share repurchases," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 76-82.
    8. Jun “QJ” Qian & Julie Lei Zhu, 2018. "Return to Invested Capital and the Performance of Mergers and Acquisitions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4818-4834, October.
    9. Kallberg, Jarl & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Time-series and cross-sectional excess comovement in stock indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 481-502, June.
    10. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2018. "Agnostic fundamental analysis works," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 125-147.
    11. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chen, Jia & Hou, Kewei & Stulz, Rene M., 2015. "Are Firms in 'Boring' Industries Worth Less?," Working Paper Series 2015-02, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    13. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2015. "Strategic Cross-Trading in the U.S. Stock Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 229-282.
    15. Huang, Chia-Wei & Ho, Po-Hsin & Lin, Chih-Yung & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2014. "Firm age, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run SEO underperformance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 246-266.
    16. Chue, Timothy K. & Gul, Ferdinand A. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2019. "Aggregate investor sentiment and stock return synchronicity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Liu, Siqi & Yin, Chao & Zeng, Yeqin, 2021. "Abnormal investment and firm performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2015. "Earnings forecasts and idiosyncratic volatilities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-123.
    19. Ramzi Benkraiem & Sabri Boubaker & Asif Saeed, 2022. "How does corporate social responsibility engagement affect the information content of stock prices?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1266-1289, July.
    20. Bustamante, Maria Cecilia & Donangelo, Andrés, 2014. "Product market competition and industry returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119031, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.