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Canada's Pioneering Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s:(Hard) Lessons Learned for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Ali Dib
  • Lawrence Schembri
Abstract
This paper revisits Canada's pioneering experience with floating exchange rate over the period 1950-1962. It examines whether the floating rate was the best option for Canada in the 1950s by developing and estimating a New Keynesian small open economy model of the Canadian economy. The model is then used to conduct a counterfactual analysis of the impact of different monetary policies and exchange rate regimes. The main finding indicates that the flexible exchange rate helped reduce the volatility of key macro-economic variables. The Canadian monetary authorities, however, clearly did not understand all of the implications of conducting monetary policy under a flexible exchange rate and a high degree of capital mobility. The paper confirms that monetary policy was more volatile in the post-1957 period and Canada's macroeconomic performance suffered as a result.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Ali Dib & Lawrence Schembri, 2007. "Canada's Pioneering Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s:(Hard) Lessons Learned for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 13605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13605
    Note: ME IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    2. Ali Dib, 2011. "Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 769-796, November.
    3. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre L. Siklos, 2010. "Revisiting the Coyne Affair: a singular event that changed the course of Canadian monetary history," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 994-1015, August.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2015. "Growing Up to Stability? Financial Globalization, Financial Development and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 21287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thomas J Carter & Rhys Mendes & Lawrence L Schembri, 2018. "Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "US Intervention during the Bretton Woods Era, 1962–1973," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 120-209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Siklos, Pierre L., 2009. "Not quite as advertised: Canada's managed float in the 1950s and Bank of Canada intervention," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 413-435, December.
    6. Kwo Ping Tam, 2016. "A New Comparative Study On The Free-Floating And Currency Board Regimes In Hong Kong," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 218-238, April.
    7. Chayawadee Chai-anant & Runchana Pongsaparn & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2008. "Roles of Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: A Case Study for Thailand," Working Papers 2008-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • N01 - Economic History - - General - - - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods

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