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Arbitrage Opportunities in Arbitrage-Free Models of Bond Pricing

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  • David Backus
  • Silverio Foresi
  • Stanley Zin
Abstract
Mathematical models of bond pricing are used by both academics and Wall Street practitioners, with practitioners introducing time-dependent parameters to fit arbitrage-free models to selected asset prices. We show, in a simple one-factor setting, that the ability of such models to reproduce a subset of security prices need not extend to state-contingent claims more generally. The popular Black-Derman-Toy model, for example, overprices call options on long bonds relative to those on short bonds when interest rates exhibit mean reversion. We argue, more generally, that the additional parameters of arbitrage-free models should be complemented by close attention to fundamentals, which might include mean reversion, multiple factors, stochastic volatility, and/or non-normal interest rate distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Stanley Zin, 1996. "Arbitrage Opportunities in Arbitrage-Free Models of Bond Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5638
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Kristensen, 2004. "A Semiparametric Single-Factor Model of the Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp501, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Almeida, Thiago Ramos, 2024. "Estimating time-varying factors’ variance in the string-term structure model with stochastic volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    3. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2012. "The Meiselman forward interest rate revision regression as an Affine Term Structure Model," Discussion Papers 12/27, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Issler, João Victor, 1995. "Estimating the term structure of volatility and fixed income derivative pricing," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 272, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    6. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Term structure of interest models: concept and estimation problem in a continuous-time setting," Finance 0504017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, "undated". "Discrete time models of bond pricing," GSIA Working Papers 251, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Estimation of continuous-time interest rate models: a nonparametric approach," Finance 0504015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    10. Zhang, Xibin & Brooks, Robert D. & King, Maxwell L., 2009. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 21-32, November.
    11. Yunbi An & Wulin Suo, 2009. "An Empirical Comparison of Option‐Pricing Models in Hedging Exotic Options," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 889-914, December.
    12. Michael W. Brandt & Amir Yaron, 2003. "Time-Consistent No-Arbitrage Models of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 9458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Teresa Corzo Santamaría & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2005. "Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 167-190, September.
    14. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    15. Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza & Eli M. Remolona, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
    17. Choong Tze Chua & Dean Foster & Krishna Ramaswamy & Robert Stine, 2008. "A Dynamic Model for the Forward Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 265-310, January.
    18. Longstaff, Francis A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2001. "Throwing away a billion dollars: the cost of suboptimal exercise strategies in the swaptions market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 39-66, October.
    19. Sergio Ortobelli & Noureddine Kouaissah & Tomáš Tichý, 2019. "On the use of conditional expectation in portfolio selection problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 501-530, March.
    20. J. C. Arismendi-Zambrano & T. Ramos-Almeida & J. C. Reboredo & M. A. Rivera-Castro, 2020. "Identifying Statistical Arbitrage in Interest Rate Markets: A Genetic Algorithm Approach," Economics Department Working Paper Series n305-20.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    21. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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