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Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth: Recent Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries

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Abstract
This paper investigates the links between inflation, its uncertainty and economic growth in five ASEAN countries over the period 1980: Q1-2011: Q3. We rely on the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model to explore the causal relationship among the three variables. The major findings are: (i) inflation uncertainty increases more in response to positive inflation surprises than to negative surprises in all countries; (ii) inflationary shocks affect positively inflation uncertainty as predicted by the Friedman-Ball hypothesis; (iii) there is no evidence to suggest that inflation uncertainty causes inflation, and; (iv) there is evidence that inflation affects growth negatively, both directly and indirectly (via the inflation uncertainty channel). The indirect effect is clearly stronger as it applies in all countries in the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2012. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth: Recent Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries," Discussion Paper Series 2012_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_07
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    2. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Twari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201591, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    4. Apostolos Serletis & Jinan Liu, 2022. "Inflation and economic activity in advanced and emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4196-4223, October.
    5. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    6. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
    8. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    9. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2020. "The Linkages between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Selected Asian Economies: Evidence from Quantile Regression," MPRA Paper 99868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Haryo Kuncoro, 2024. "Inflation and Its Uncertainty: Evidence from Indonesia and the Philippines," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 16(2), pages 231-247, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation uncertainty; output growth; ASEAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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