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Post-Crisis Credit Slowdown in South-East Europe – Return to Normality?

Author

Listed:
  • Branimir Jovanovic

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Egzona Hani

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Ljupka Georgievska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract
What explains the post-crisis slowdown in bank credit to private sector in the South-East European economies? We try to answer this question, by comparing the actual credit growth to the fundamental and equilibrium growths. The fundamental growth is defined as the growth justified by the fundamentals, the equilibrium growth – as the growth consistent with the economy being in medium-term equilibrium. Results suggest that the slowdown reflects both return of the credit activity to its fundamental value, and return of the fundamental values to their equilibrium levels, after years of excessiveness during the precrisis period. Rapid credit growth, as in the pre-crisis period, should not be expected in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Branimir Jovanovic & Egzona Hani & Ljupka Georgievska, 2014. "Post-Crisis Credit Slowdown in South-East Europe – Return to Normality?," Working Papers 2014-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2014-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Milan Eliskovski, 2018. "Investigating credit transmission mechanism in the Republic of Macedonia: evidence from Vector Error Correction Model," Working Papers 2018-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    3. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2018. "Has private sector credit in CESEE approached levels justified by fundamentals? A post-crisis assessment," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3-18, pages 141-154.
    4. Tanja Jakimova & Milan Eliskovski & Artina Bedzeti Baftijari, 2022. "Households’ euroization in the Republic of North Macedonia: Is it close or far from the optimal levels?," Working Papers 2022-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    6. Egzona Hani Selimi & Milan Eliskovski, 2018. "The effect of household and enterprise credit on current account balance: Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia," Working Papers 2018-09, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    7. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth; equilibrium credit; fundamental credit; South-East Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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