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Something from Nothing: Estimating Consumption Rates Using Propensity Scores, with Application to Emissions Reduction Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Bardsley, Nicholas

    (University of Reading)

  • Buechs, Milena

    (University of Southampton)

  • Schnepf, Sylke V.

    (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre)

Abstract
Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Only mean consumption rates can then be inferred. We show that propensity scores can be used to estimate each unit's consumption rate, revealing the distribution. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which c.40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and direct outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Analysis of such policies based solely on means appears to have a negative bias, because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.

Suggested Citation

  • Bardsley, Nicholas & Buechs, Milena & Schnepf, Sylke V., 2016. "Something from Nothing: Estimating Consumption Rates Using Propensity Scores, with Application to Emissions Reduction Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 9707, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9707
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hikaru Hasegawa & Kazuhiro Ueda & Kunie Mori, 2008. "Estimation of Engel Curves from Survey Data with Zero Expenditures," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 535-558, August.
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    14. Büchs, Milena & Schnepf, Sylke V., 2013. "Who emits most? Associations between socio-economic factors and UK households' home energy, transport, indirect and total CO2 emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 114-123.
    15. John Gibson & Bonggeun Kim, 2012. "Testing the Infrequent Purchases Model Using Direct Measurement of Hidden Consumption from Food Stocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 257-270.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milena Büchs & Noel Cass & Caroline Mullen & Karen Lucas & Diana Ivanova, 2023. "Emissions savings from equitable energy demand reduction," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 758-769, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    infrequent purchase; fuel consumption; emissions reduction; propensity score matching; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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