[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp9618.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Sustainability and Demographic Change: A Micro Approach for 27 EU Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dolls, Mathias

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Doorley, Karina

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

  • Paulus, Alari

    (ISER, University of Essex)

  • Schneider, Hilmar

    (University of Luxembourg)

  • Siegloch, Sebastian

    (University of Cologne)

  • Sommer, Eric

    (AXA AG)

Abstract
The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes a key shortcoming of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Dolls, Mathias & Doorley, Karina & Paulus, Alari & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2015. "Fiscal Sustainability and Demographic Change: A Micro Approach for 27 EU Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 9618, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp9618.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    2. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Caroline Halls, 2010. "Assessing the Fiscal Costs and Benefits of A8 Migration to the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-41, March.
    4. Day Manoli & Kathleen J. Mullen & Mathis Wagner, 2015. "Policy Variation, Labor Supply Elasticities, And A Structural Model Of Retirement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1702-1717, October.
    5. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Nico Pestel & Sebastian Siegloch, 2013. "Fiscal union in Europe? Redistributive and stabilizing effects of a European tax-benefit system and fiscal equalization mechanism [A strong employment agenda – the pathway to economic recovery]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 375-422.
    6. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    7. Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2007. "Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 1-44, January.
    8. James Ang & Jakob Madsen, 2015. "Imitation versus innovation in an aging society: international evidence since 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 299-327, April.
    9. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
    10. Bargain, Olivier B. & Orsini, Kristian & Peichl, Andreas, 2011. "Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US," IZA Discussion Papers 5820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Isilda Mara & Edlira Narazani, 2011. "Labour-incentive reforms at preretirement age in Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 481-510, November.
    12. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 525, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    13. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
    14. Vestad, Ola Lotherington, 2013. "Labour supply effects of early retirement provision," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 98-109.
    15. Hans Fehr, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, September.
    16. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    17. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    18. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    19. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Smetters, Kent & Walliser, Jan, 2007. "Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 247-266, March.
    20. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:28:y:2013:i:75:p:375-422 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. André Decoster & Xavier Flawinne & Pieter Vanleenhove, 2014. "Generational accounts for Belgium: fiscal sustainability at a glance," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 663-686, November.
    22. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    23. Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi, 2006. "LABORsim: An Agent-Based Microsimulation of Labour Supply – An Application to Italy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 63-88, February.
    24. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2013. "Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-32.
    25. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    26. Samir KC & Bilal Barakat & Anne Goujon & Vegard Skirbekk & Warren C. Sanderson & Wolfgang Lutz, 2010. "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(15), pages 383-472.
    27. Fehr, Hans & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian, 2012. "Pension reform with variable retirement age: a simulation analysis for Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 389-417, July.
    28. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:419-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Jonathan Cribb & Carl Emmerson & Gemma Tetlow, 2013. "Incentives, shocks or signals: labour supply effects of increasing the female state pension age in the UK," IFS Working Papers W13/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Eric Sommer, 2019. "Demographic change and the European income distribution," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 337-357, September.
    3. Holly Sutherland, 2018. "Quality Assessment of Microsimulation Models The Case of EUROMOD," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 198-223.
    4. Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Colombino, Ugo & Figari, Francesco & Locatelli, Marilena, 2020. "Shifting taxes away from labour enhances equity and fiscal efficiency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 367-384.
    5. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    6. Martin Beznoska & Tobias Hentze, 2017. "Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 71-84.
    7. Russell, Helen & McGinnity, Frances & Fahey, Éamonn & Kenny, Oona, 2018. "Maternal employment and the cost of childcare in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS73.
    8. Olayiwola, Saheed O. & Osakede, Uche Abamba & Adeyemi, Francis O., 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and Demographic Transition in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 12(1), March.
    9. Singh, Yadawendra & Chakraborty, Lekha, 2024. "Tax Transfers and Demographic Transition: Empirical Evidence for 16th Finance Commission," Working Papers 24/417, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    11. Claudio Loser & Jose Fajgenbaum & Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Ieva Vilkelyte, 2017. "How Aging Societies May Affect Global Growth Prospects," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 9(1-3), pages 38-74, January.
    12. Doorley, Karina, 2018. "Taxation, Work and Gender Equality in Ireland," IZA Discussion Papers 11495, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Jörg Paetzold & Markus Tiefenbacher, 2018. "Distributional and revenue effects of a tax shift from labor to property," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(5), pages 1215-1251, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Eric Sommer, 2019. "Demographic change and the European income distribution," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 337-357, September.
    2. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Andreas Peichl, 2016. "Linking Microsimulation and CGE models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 167-174.
    4. Dieter Vandelannoote & Gerlinde Verbist, 2016. "The design of in-work benefits: how to boost employment and combat poverty in Belgium," ImPRovE Working Papers 16/15, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    5. Nico Pestel, 2014. "Beyond Inequality Accounting: Marital Sorting and Couple Labor Supply," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 698, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Charlotte Bartels & Cortnie Shupe, 2023. "Drivers of participation elasticities across Europe: gender or earner role within the household?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 167-214, February.
    7. Salvador Barrios & Flavia Coda Moscarola & Francesco Figari & Luca Gandullia, 2020. "Size and distributional pattern of pension-related tax expenditures in European countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1320, October.
    8. Buhlmann, Florian & Hebsaker, Michael & Kreuz, Tobias & Schmidhäuser, Jakob & Siegloch, Sebastian & Stichnoth, Holger, 2022. "ZEW-EviSTA: A microsimulation model of the German tax and transfer system," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Colombino, Ugo & Figari, Francesco & Locatelli, Marilena, 2020. "Shifting taxes away from labour enhances equity and fiscal efficiency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 367-384.
    11. Jäntti, Markus & Pirttilä, Jukka & Selin, Håkan, 2015. "Estimating labour supply elasticities based on cross-country micro data: A bridge between micro and macro estimates?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 87-99.
    12. Michal Horvath & Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda, 2015. "The End of the Flat Tax Experiment in Slovakia," Discussion Papers 15/12, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Thomas Leoni & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2020. "Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten und Finanzierungsvarianten. Bisherige Erkenntnisse und internationale Reformbeispiele," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66851.
    14. Alari PaulusBy & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland, 2017. "The design of fiscal consolidation measures in the European Union: distributional effects and implications for macro-economic recovery," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 632-654.
    15. Nico Pestel, 2017. "Marital Sorting, Inequality and the Role of Female Labour Supply: Evidence from East and West Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(333), pages 104-127, January.
    16. Klára Kalíšková, 2020. "Tax and transfer policies and the female labor supply in the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 749-775, February.
    17. Olivier Bargain, 2017. "Welfare analysis and redistributive policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(4), pages 393-419, December.
    18. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2018. "Structural Labour Supply Models and Microsimulation," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 162-197.
    19. Benczúr, Péter & Kátay, Gábor & Kiss, Áron, 2018. "Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-457.
    20. Nico Pestel & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 542-563, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; fiscal effects; labor supply; labor demand; pension systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.