[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp072017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Portuguese Households' Indebtedness

Author

Listed:
  • José Alves
  • Rita Pereira
Abstract
Since the 2008's nancial crisis authorities have been particularly aware about the necessity of being provided with early warning indicators regarding nancial stability. In fact, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision suggests the analysis of the di erence between the private sector credit-to-GDP ratio and its own long-term trend. For the past two decades Portugal, has witnessed a dramatic indebtedness increase among household. Our objective is to examine the reasons for this increase by analysing the ratio of domestic credit to the private sector to GDP between 1961 and 2011. The main conclusions are the non-suitability of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision approach for Portugal and the break of the link between deposits and credit from 1992 onwards. Key Words : Households Indebtedness, Early Warning Indicators, Credit.

Suggested Citation

  • José Alves & Rita Pereira, 2017. "The Portuguese Households' Indebtedness," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp072017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp072017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank.
    2. Gabriela Lopes de Castro, 2006. "Consumption, Disposable Income and Liquidity Constraints," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.
    4. Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2013. "Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators," IMF Working Papers 2013/258, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    6. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    7. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Total credit as an early warning indicator for systemic banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    8. Julia Giese & Henrik Andersen & Oliver Bush & Christian Castro & Marc Farag & Sujit Kapadia, 2014. "The Credit‐To‐Gdp Gap And Complementary Indicators For Macroprudential Policy: Evidence From The Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 25-47, January.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Sónia Costa, 2012. "Households’ Default Probability: An Analysis Based on the Results of the HFCS," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Luísa Farinha & Sónia Costa, 2012. "Households’ indebtedness: a microeconomic analysis based on the results of the households’ financial," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromił, 2014. "Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 572-587.
    13. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José Ricardo Borges Alves & Rita Maria Henriques Pereira, 2020. "The indebtedness of households up until the economic adjustment programme for Portugal: an empirical assessment," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 529-550.
    2. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    3. Torsten Wezel, 2019. "Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer," IMF Working Papers 2019/086, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    5. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Bouvatier, Vincent & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Rehault, Pierre-Nicolas, 2022. "Measuring credit procyclicality: A new database," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    8. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    10. Helene Olsen & Harald Wieslander, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway," Working Papers No 02/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. R. Barrell & D. Karim & C. Macchiarelli, 2020. "Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(10), pages 978-993, July.
    14. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    15. Ihejirika, Peters. O, 2020. "Does the Credit-to-GDP Gap Predict Financial Crisis in Nigeria?," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 109-126, June.
    16. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2016. "Disaggregated Credit Extension and Financial Distress in South Africa," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 226-240, June.
    17. G. Farrell, 2016. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers and Real-Time Credit-To-GDP Gap Estimates: A South African Perspective," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20, April.
    18. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    19. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    20. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Bukovsak, 2022. "Improving The Calibration Of Countercyclical Capital Buffer: New Indicators Of Credit Gap In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 31(2), pages 541-568, december.
    21. Isabel Cairo & Jae Sim, 2017. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp072017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vitor Escaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://aquila.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.