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Which credit gap is better at predicting financial crises? A comparison of univariate filters

Author

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  • Mathias Drehmann
  • James Yetman
Abstract
The credit gap, defined as the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from a one-sided HP-filtered trend, is a useful indicator for predicting financial crises. Basel III therefore suggests that policymakers use it as part of their countercyclical capital buffer frameworks. Hamilton (2018), however, argues that you should never use an HP filter as it results in spurious dynamics, has end-point problems and its typical implementation is at odds with its statistical foundations. Instead he proposes the use of linear projections. Some have also criticised the normalisation by GDP, since gaps will be negatively correlated with output. We agree with these criticisms. Yet, in the absence of clear theoretical foundations, all proposed gaps are but indicators. It is therefore an empirical question which measure performs best as an early warning indicator for crises. We run a horse race using expanding samples on quarterly data from 1970 to 2017 for 41 economies. We find that credit gaps based on linear projections in real time perform poorly when based on country-by-country estimation, and are subject to their own end-point problem. But when we estimate as a panel, and impose the same coefficients on all economies, linear projections perform marginally better than the baseline credit-to-GDP gap, with somewhat larger improvements concentrated in the post-2000 period and for emerging market economies. The practical relevance of the improvement is limited, though. Over a ten year horizon policy makers could expect one less wrong call on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2020. "Which credit gap is better at predicting financial crises? A comparison of univariate filters," BIS Working Papers 878, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:878
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    2. Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2023. "Analysing financial stability reports as crisis predictors with the use of text-mining," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Papers No 13/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2022. "Financial Crises, Macroprudential Policy and the Reliability of Credit-to-GDP Gaps," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 625-667, December.
    5. Coussin, Maximilien, 2022. "Singular spectrum analysis for real-time financial cycles measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2022. "In Search of Global Determinants of National Credit-to-GDP Gaps," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
    10. Ihejirika, Peters. O, 2020. "Does the Credit-to-GDP Gap Predict Financial Crisis in Nigeria?," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 109-126, June.
    11. Jylhä, Petri & Lof, Matthijs, 2022. "Mind the Basel gap," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning indicators; credit gaps; HP filter; linear projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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