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Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Jaravel

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and London School of Economics)

  • Martin O'Connell

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin)

Abstract
We characterize in?ation dynamics during the Great Lockdown using scanner data covering millions of transactions for fast-moving consumer goods in the United Kingdom. We show that there was a signi?cant and widespread spike in in?ation. First, aggregate month-to-month in?ation was 2.4% in the ?rst month of lockdown, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months. Over half of this increase stems from reduced frequency of promotions. Consumers’ purchasing power was further eroded by a reduction in product variety, leading to a further 85 basis points increase in the e?ective cost of living. Second, 96% of households have experienced in?ation in 2020, while in prior years around half of households experienced de?ation. Third, there was in?ation in most product categories, including those that expe-rienced output falls. Only 13% of product categories experienced de?ation, compared with over half in previous years. While market-based measures of in?ation expectations point to disin?ation or de?ation, these ?ndings indicate a risk of stag?ation should not be ruled out. We hope our approach can serve as a template to facilitate rapid diagnosis of in?ation risks during economic crises, leveraging scanner data and appropriate price indices in real-time.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Jaravel & Martin O'Connell, 2020. "Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," IFS Working Papers W20/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/17
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chowdhury, Aftab & Dixon, Huw David, 2023. "Measuring inflation during the Pandemic with the benefit of hindsight," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    4. J. Peña & E. Prades, 2021. "Price setting in Chile: Micro evidence from consumer on-line prices during the social outbreak and Covid-19," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 906, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Balleer, Almut & Link, Sebastian & Menkhoff, Manuel & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13568, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Marina Tkalec, 0000. "Inflation response to the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions: Evidence from EU-27," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14216251, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," IMF Working Papers 2020/207, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pascal Seiler, 2020. "Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Bruce Lyons, 2021. "Unfinished Reform of the Institutions Enforcing UK Competition Law," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2021-01, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    11. Jennifer Peña & Elvira Prades, 2021. "Price setting in Chile: Micro evidence from consumer on-line prices during the social outbreak and Covid-19," Working Papers 2112, Banco de España.
    12. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Dylan Balla‐Elliott & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2022. "Determinants Of Small Business Reopening Decisions After Covid Restrictions Were Lifted," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 278-317, January.
    15. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    17. Chris Martin & Magdalyn Okolo, 2022. "Modelling the Differing Impacts of Covid‐19 in the UK Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 994-1017, October.
    18. Xavier Jaravel & Martin O'Connell, 2020. "High‐Frequency Changes in Shopping Behaviours, Promotions and the Measurement of Inflation: Evidence from the Great Lockdown," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 733-755, September.
    19. Aulia Rayna ASMADINA & Ariodillah HIDAYAT & Imam ASNGARI & Sri ANDAIYANI, 2021. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and Inflation in Indonesia," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 53(2(62)), pages 27-39, December.
    20. San Sau Fung & Simon Roberts, 2021. "The economics of potential price gouging during Covid-19 and the application to complaints received by the CMA," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2021-02, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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