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Opposite Nonlinear Effects of Unemployment and Sentiment on Male and Female Suicide Rates: Evidence from Australia

Author

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  • Ferdi Botha

    (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne)

  • Viet H. Nguyen

    (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne)

Abstract
This paper investigates whether there are gender differences in the effects of unemployment and sentiment on suicide rates. We apply linear and nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to monthly Australian data from February 1990 to September 2018. As expected, we find a positive relationship between the unemployment rate and suicide rate, and a negative relationship between consumer sentiment and the suicide rate. However, there is strong evidence of nonlinearity in the effects of both unemployment and sentiment on suicide rates, with substantial gender differences. For men, an increase in the unemployment rate significantly increases the suicide rate, but an unemployment decrease has no effect; we find the opposite for women. For men, an increase in sentiment tends to have stronger effects on the suicide rate than a decrease in sentiment. Again, we observe the opposite effect for women. Among components of sentiment, forward-looking expectations are stronger predictors of suicide rates than components relating to present conditions. We also find that sentiment has a much stronger effect on male suicide rates than on female suicide rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdi Botha & Viet H. Nguyen, 2021. "Opposite Nonlinear Effects of Unemployment and Sentiment on Male and Female Suicide Rates: Evidence from Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n15
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lepori, Gabriele M. & Morgan, Sara & Assarian, Borna A. & Mishra, Tapas, 2024. "Economic activity and suicides: Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    3. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Tao, Hung-Lin & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and subjective health: A gender perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Suicide rate; unemployment rate; consumer sentiment; Australia; asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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