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Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Engelbert Stockhammer
  • Robert Calvert Jump
  • Karsten Kohler
  • Julian Cavallero
Abstract
Theories such as Minsky's financial instability hypothesis or New Keynesian financial accelerator models assign a key role to financial factors in business cycle dynamics. We present descriptive statistics and a simple estimation framework to examine the financial-real interaction mechanisms that are at the core of these theories. Specifically, we examine cycle frequencies in seven OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2015, and find that interest rates, business debt, and household debt exhibit cycle lengths of 4-6, 8-11, and 14-26 years, respectively. We then estimate bivariate VAR models which provide evidence for financial-real interaction mechanisms, (i) at high frequencies between interest rates and GDP, and (ii) at low frequencies between business debt and GDP. In contrast, there is no evidence for a cycle mechanism between household debt and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Calvert Jump & Karsten Kohler & Julian Cavallero, 2018. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," FMM Working Paper 29-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:fmmpap:29-2018
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    Cited by:

    1. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2023. "Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 317-335.
    4. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    5. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 551-572.
    6. Juan Laborda & Vicente Salas & Cristina Suárez, 2021. "Financial constraints on R&D projects and minsky moments: containing the credit cycle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1111, September.
    7. Škare, Marinko & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2020. "Multi-channel singular-spectrum analysis of financial cycles in ten developed economies for 1970–2018," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 567-575.
    8. Karsten Kohler & Robert Calvert Jump, 2022. "Estimating Nonlinear Business Cycle Mechanisms with Linear Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1077-1100, October.
    9. Yannis Dafermos & Daniela Gabor & Jo Michell, 2023. "Institutional supercycles: an evolutionary macro-finance approach," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 693-712, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minsky; financial accelerator; financial cycle; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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