[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-088.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Arvind Subramanian
  • Ms. Prachi Mishra
  • Aaditya Mattoo
Abstract
This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, which we call the "spillover effect". We use recent theory to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. We exploit the variation - afforded by disaggregated trade data - across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. We find robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Our estimates suggest that a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts on average a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit HS product category to third markets by about 1.5-2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Ms. Prachi Mishra & Aaditya Mattoo, 2012. "Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi," IMF Working Papers 2012/088, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25802
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    3. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-336, March.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    7. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2008. "A Structural Approach to Explaining Incomplete Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and Pricing-to-Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 423-429, May.
    8. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    9. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    10. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond Robertson, 2010. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 137-159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2010. "Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 119-171, April.
    12. Finger, J M & Kreinin, M E, 1979. "A Measure of 'Export Similarity' and Its Possible Uses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 905-912, December.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    14. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-495, August.
    15. Yuqing Xing, 2010. "The Yuan’s Exchange Rates and Pass-through Effects on the Prices of Japanese and US Imports," Working Papers id:3130, eSocialSciences.
    16. Yuqing Xing, 2010. "The Yuan's Exchange Rates and Pass-through Effects on the Prices of Japanese and the US Imports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 531-548, December.
    17. Michael Peneder, 1999. "Intangible Investment and Human Resources. The New WIFO Taxonomy of Manufacturing Industries," WIFO Working Papers 114, WIFO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    2. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
    3. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov, 2012. "Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 34-54.
    5. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Nagesh Kumar, 2024. "Manufacturing-led transformation for realizing India’s 2047 Vision in the context of a fractured trading system: challenges, opportunities, and strategic interventions," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 155-176, October.
    7. Aleksandra ?or?evi? Zori?, 2019. "The importance of exchange rate stability for export growth," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9911949, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
    9. Chen, Pei-Fen & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Renminbi exchange rate assessment and competitors' exports: New perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 187-205.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.
    11. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?1)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    12. Arvind Subramanian & Martin Kessler, 2013. "The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future," Working Paper Series WP13-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Ying Sophie Huang & Bo Tang, 2016. "Does the Yuan's Overseas Expansion Increase the Currency Exposure of Chinese Financial Firms?," Working Papers 2016006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    14. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2014. "Is the Renminbi Asia's Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-20.
    15. Ferrarini , Benno, 2013. "Abenomics’ Trade Spillover," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 379, Asian Development Bank.
    16. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    17. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Huang, Ying Sophie & Tang, Bo, 2018. "Does internationalisation increase exchange rate exposure? -Evidence from Chinese financial firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 253-263.
    18. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    19. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Working Paper Series WP11-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    3. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    4. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2010. "Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 675-727.
    5. Baxter, Marianne & Landry, Anthony, 2017. "IKEA: Product, pricing, and pass-through," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 507-520.
    6. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    7. Nagengast, Arne J. & Bursian, Dirk & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Dynamic pricing and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from transaction-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Gita Gopinath, 2015. "The International Price System," NBER Working Papers 21646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús & Trujillo-Barrera, Andrés, 2023. "Wholesale price rigidities and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from daily data of agricultural products," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Sebastian Heise, 2016. "Firm-to-Firm Relationships and Price Rigidity - Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6226, CESifo.
    11. Dekle, Robert & Ryoo, Heajin H., 2007. "Exchange rate fluctuations, financing constraints, hedging, and exports: Evidence from firm level data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 437-451, December.
    12. Dario Fauceglia & Anirudh Shingal & Martin Wermelinger, 2014. "Natural Hedging of Exchange Rate Risk: The Role of Imported Input Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 261-296, December.
    13. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Meredith Crowley & Lu Han & Huasheng Song, 2018. "Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China," Discussion Papers 1803, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    15. Winters, L Alan & Fernandes, Ana P., 2018. "The effect of exchange rate shocks on firm-level exports: evidence from the Brexit vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 13253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Bernini, Michele & Tomasi, Chiara, 2015. "Exchange rate pass-through and product heterogeneity: Does quality matter on the import side?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 117-138.
    17. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    18. Giordano, Claire & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and trade in EU countries: a cross-country analysis," Occasional Paper Series 225, European Central Bank.
    19. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    20. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2022. "Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1435-1493.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.