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Spillover effects of exchange rates : a study of the Renminbi

Author

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  • Mattoo, Aaditya
  • Mishra, Prachi
  • Subramanian, Arvind
Abstract
This paper estimates how changes in China's exchange rates would affect exports from competitor countries in third-country markets -- in other words, the"spillover effect."The authors use recent theory to develop an identification strategy, with a key role for the competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and export destinations. Using disaggregated trade data, they estimate the spillover effect by exploiting the variation across different exporters, importers, products, and time periods. They find a spillover effect that is statistically and quantitatively significant. Their estimates suggest that a 10-percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical four-digit Harmonized System product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent on average. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with the characteristics of products, such as the extent to which they are differentiated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattoo, Aaditya & Mishra, Prachi & Subramanian, Arvind, 2012. "Spillover effects of exchange rates : a study of the Renminbi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5989, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5989
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    2. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
    3. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov, 2012. "Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 34-54.
    5. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Nagesh Kumar, 2024. "Manufacturing-led transformation for realizing India’s 2047 Vision in the context of a fractured trading system: challenges, opportunities, and strategic interventions," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 155-176, October.
    7. Aleksandra ?or?evi? Zori?, 2019. "The importance of exchange rate stability for export growth," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9911949, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
    9. Chen, Pei-Fen & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Renminbi exchange rate assessment and competitors' exports: New perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 187-205.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.
    11. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?1)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    12. Arvind Subramanian & Martin Kessler, 2013. "The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future," Working Paper Series WP13-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Ying Sophie Huang & Bo Tang, 2016. "Does the Yuan's Overseas Expansion Increase the Currency Exposure of Chinese Financial Firms?," Working Papers 2016006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    14. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2014. "Is the Renminbi Asia's Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-20.
    15. Ferrarini , Benno, 2013. "Abenomics’ Trade Spillover," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 379, Asian Development Bank.
    16. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    17. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Huang, Ying Sophie & Tang, Bo, 2018. "Does internationalisation increase exchange rate exposure? -Evidence from Chinese financial firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 253-263.
    18. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    19. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

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    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Markets and Market Access;
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