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Predicting Interest Rate Volatility: Using Information on the Yield Curve

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  • Takamizawa, Hideyuki
  • 髙見澤, 秀幸
Abstract
This study examines whether information on the yield curve is useful for predicting volatility of the yield curve. The information is used within dynamic models by specifying the covariance matrix of changes in yield factors as nonlinear functions of the factors. Using such models, it is found that the information (i) is useful for predicting volatility of the slope factor, achieving the accuracy comparable with the GARCH model; (ii) has incremental value for predicting volatility of the curvature factor when combined with a volatility-specific factor; and (iii) does not much improve prediction of volatility of the level factor once the volatility-specific factor is introduced.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Takamizawa, Hideyuki & 髙見澤, 秀幸, 2012. "Predicting Interest Rate Volatility: Using Information on the Yield Curve," Working Paper Series G-1-3, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hcfrwp:g-1-3
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    Cited by:

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    3. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Time Series Dynamics of Short Term Interest Rates in Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 92-108, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Gaussian model; Term structure; Level-dependence; Realized volatility; Approximation of conditional moments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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