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The Evolution of the Natural Rate of Interest – Evidence from the Scandinavian Countries

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Abstract
In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden are estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to eco-nomic indicators – a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle fluctuations. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods on data ranging from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. The results indi-cate that the natural rate has declined substantially and in all countries is at a low level at the end of the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Armelius, Hanna & Solberger, Martin & Spånberg, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "The Evolution of the Natural Rate of Interest – Evidence from the Scandinavian Countries," Working Papers 2023:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2023_008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Business cycle; Bayesian filter; Dynamic factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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