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Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Bonham

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Byron Gangnes

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract
Tourism taxes have become an important source of revenue or many tourist destinations in the USA. Among the most widely used is the hotel room tax, levied by 47 states and many localities. Room taxes are touted by proponents as a way to shift the local tax burden to non-residents, while the travel industry claims the levies significantly harm their competitiveness. Previous studies of room tax impacts have relied on ex ante estimates of demand and supply elasticities. In this study, we analyse the effect on hotel revenues of the Hawaii room tax using time series intervention analysis. We specify a time series model of revenue behaviour that captures the long-run cointegrating relationships among revenues and important income and relative price variables, as well as other short-run dynamic influences. We estimate the effect on Hawaii hotel room revenues of the 5% Hawaii hotel room tax introduced in January 1987. We find no evidence of statistically significant tax impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 1995. "Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax," Working Papers 199505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:199505
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/88-98/WP_95-5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lava Prakash Yadav & Stephen O’Neill & Tom van Rensburg, 2013. "Economic Crisis and the Restructuring of Wage Setting Mechanisms for Vulnerable Workers in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 221-245.
    2. Nestor M. Arguea & Richard R. Hawkins, 2015. "The rate elasticity of Florida tourist development (aka bed) taxes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(18), pages 1823-1832, April.
    3. Michael Toma & Richard McGrath & James Payne, 2009. "Hotel tax receipts and the 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil': a time series intervention seasonal ARIMA model with time-varying variance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 653-656.
    4. Bonham, Carl & Gangnes, Byron & Zhou, Ting, 2009. "Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 531-549, July.
    5. Carl Bonham & Christopher Edmonds & James Mak, 2006. "The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii," Economics Study Area Working Papers 87, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    6. Stephen O'Neill & Lava Prakash Yadav, 2016. "Willingness to pay towards a public good: how does a refund option affect stated values?," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(2), pages 342-359, February.
    7. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S., 2008. "Tourism Taxation and Environmental Quality in a Model with Vertical Differentiation," MPRA Paper 25305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    8. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    9. Robert McComb & Young-Kyu Moh & Anita Schiller, 2011. "Measuring long-run economic effects of natural hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 559-566, July.
    10. Russu, Paolo, 2012. "Dynamics in a environmental model with tourism taxation," MPRA Paper 37213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mohammad Mohebi & Khalid Abdul Rahim & Lee Chin & Khairil Wahidin Awang, 2011. "Tax Exportability in Tourism Market," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 3(2), pages 410-415, June.

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