[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/94745.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data

Author

Listed:
  • Denis Gorea
  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov
  • Marianna Kudlyak
Abstract
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. We exploit information contained in listings for the residential properties for sale in the United States between 2001 and 2019 from the CoreLogic Multiple Listing Service Dataset. Using high-frequency measures of monetary policy shocks, we document that a one standard-deviation contractionary monetary policy surprise lowers housing list prices by 0.2–0.3 percent within two weeks—a magnitude on par with the effect on stock prices. House prices respond stronger to the surprises to future rates as compared to the surprise changes in the federal funds rate. Sale prices are mostly pre-determined by list prices and do not independently respond to monetary policy surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data," Working Paper Series 2022-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94745
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2022-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp2022-16.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2022-16?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    6. Robert B. Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles S. Kimball, 2007. "Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 984-998, June.
    7. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    8. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, A. Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    10. Edward Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2018. "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    11. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    12. Oikarinen, Elias & Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Engblom, Janne, 2018. "U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-69.
    13. Elliot Anenberg, 2016. "Information Frictions And Housing Market Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1449-1479, November.
    14. John C Williams, 2016. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy on house prices and the economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 7-16, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "The Role of the List Price in Housing Markets: Theory and an Econometric Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 115-129, April-Jun.
    16. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    17. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    18. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    19. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    20. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    21. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-1292, December.
    22. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    23. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2013. "Low Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles: Still No Smoking Gun," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 8, pages 159-185, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Elliot Anenberg, 2016. "Information Frictions And Housing Market Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1449-1479, November.
    25. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    26. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    27. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    28. Abdullah Yavas & Shiawee Yang, 1995. "The Strategic Role of Listing Price in Marketing Real Estate: Theory and Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 347-368, September.
    29. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    30. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.
    31. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    32. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    33. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    35. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    36. John C. Williams, 2015. "Measuring monetary policy’s effect on house prices," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    37. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    38. David Berger & Konstantin Milbradt & Fabrice Tourre & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2829-2878, September.
    39. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    40. Bhutta, Neil & Ringo, Daniel, 2021. "The effect of interest rates on home buying: Evidence from a shock to mortgage insurance premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 195-211.
    41. Yifei Wang & Toni M. Whited & Yufeng Wu & Kairong Xiao, 2022. "Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2093-2141, August.
    42. Edward L. Glaeser & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Housing and the Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glae11-1.
    43. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    44. Adam M. Guren, 2018. "House Price Momentum and Strategic Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1172-1218.
    45. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Arlene Wong, 2021. "Refinancing and The Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption," Working Papers 2021-57, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    47. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
    48. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William D. Larson, 2022. "Effects of Mortgage Interest Rates on House Price Appreciation: The Role of Payment Constraints," FHFA Staff Working Papers 22-04, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    2. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    3. Daniel R. Ringo, 2024. "Inframarginal Borrowers and the Mortgage Payment Channel of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Daniel R. Ringo, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Denis Gorea & Augustus Kmetz & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak & Mitchell Ochse, 2023. "House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(09), pages 1-5, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dias, Daniel A. & Duarte, João B., 2015. "Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 112252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    2. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    4. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 96339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    6. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    7. Daniel Gründler & Eric Mayer & Johann Scharler, 2023. "Monetary Policy Announcements, Information Shocks, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 341-369, April.
    8. Luca Fanelli & Antonio Marsi, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: A Tale of Three Shocks," Working Papers wp1164, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2022. "One Money, Many Markets [Fixed Rate Versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages: Evidence from Euro Area Banks]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 513-548.
    11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 14968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    13. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2024. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2024/023, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC Risk Shift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 21-39.
    18. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    19. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    20. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; monetary policy; monetary policy transmission; house sales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.