[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2007_26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study

Author

Abstract
In this paper, we examine the effects of Czech monetary policy on the economy within VAR and the structural VAR framework. We document well-functioning transmission mechanism similar to the euro area countries, especially in terms of persistence of monetary policy shocks. Subject to various sensitivity tests, we find that contractionary monetary policy shock has a negative effect on the degree of economic activity and price level, both with a peak response after one year or so. Regarding the prices at the sectoral level, tradables adjust faster than non-tradables, which is in line with microeconomic evidence on price persistence. There is a rationale in using the real-time output gap instead of current GDP growth as using the former results in much more precise estimates. There is no evidence for price puzzle within the system. The results indicate a rather persistent appreciation of domestic currency after monetary tightening with a gradual depreciation afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horváth, 2007. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," Working Papers IES 2007/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2007_26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/6487
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Jan Strasky, 2005. "Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes 2005/05, Czech National Bank.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October.
    7. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2007. "Monetary policy shocks in the new EU members: a VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 1147-1161.
    8. Hafedh Bouakez & Emanuela Cardia & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2009. "The Transmission Of Monetary Policy In A Multisector Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1243-1266, November.
    9. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    10. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    11. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
    12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Price Setting Behaviour: Micro Evidence on Slovakia," CEPR Discussion Papers 5445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    15. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    16. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
    17. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, September.
    18. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs: a comprehensive analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00193947, HAL.
    19. Kamil Dybczak & Vladislav Flek & Dana Hajkova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2006. "Supply-Side Performance and Structure in the Czech Republic (1995-2005)," Working Papers 2006/4, Czech National Bank.
    20. Vladislav Flek & Mojmír Hájek & Jaromír Hurník & Ladislav Prokop & Lenka Racková, 2001. "Výkonnost a struktura nabídkové strany [Supply-side performance and structure]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2001(6).
    21. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut Lütkepohl, Springer, 2005," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 961-967, October.
    23. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007.
    24. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 2005. "The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 319-342, April.
    25. Zsolt Darvas, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in the New EU Member States: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregression," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 140-155.
    26. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    27. Martin, Christopher, 1993. "Price adjustment and market structure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 139-143.
    28. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    29. Jérôme Creel* & Sandrine Levasseur, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs: How Important are the Differences with the Euro Area?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 30-59, February.
    30. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-384, March.
    31. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 97-111.
    32. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    33. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
    34. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2006. "Competition and price adjustment in the euro area," Working Papers 0629, Banco de España.
    35. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    36. Katerina Arnostova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)," Working Papers 2005/04, Czech National Bank.
    37. Robert J. Barro, 1972. "A Theory of Monopolistic Price Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 39(1), pages 17-26.
    38. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    39. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
    40. Gavin, William T. & Kemme, David M., 2009. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 868-879, September.
    41. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    42. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    43. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    44. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    45. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    46. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    47. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    48. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Popescu, Iulia Vasile, 2012. "Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 41686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    5. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs: a comprehensive analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00193947, HAL.
    6. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    7. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:605-624 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    9. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    10. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 197-221, March.
    11. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo.
    12. Iulian Popescu, 2012. "Effects Of Monetary Policy In Romania - A Var Approach," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(3a), pages 605-624, September.
    13. OROS, Cornel & ROMOCEA-TURCU, Camelia, 2009. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanisms In The Ceecs: A Structural Var Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    14. Zlatina Balabanova & Ralf Brüggemann, 2012. "External Information and Monetary Policy Transmission in New EU Member States: Results from FAVAR Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    15. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    16. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    17. Sousa, Joao Miguel & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Global monetary policy shocks in the G5: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 403-419, December.
    18. Adam Elbourne & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 1327, CESifo.
    19. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    20. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Katerina Arnostova & Jaromir Hurnik, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic (evidence from VAR analysis)," Working Papers 2005/04, Czech National Bank.
    22. Gert Peersman, 2004. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 285-308, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transmission; VAR; real-time data; sectoral prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2007_26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.