[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/06033.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Kozo Kiyota
  • Miho Takizawa
Abstract
This paper examines the pre-exit productivity performance and asks how productivity affects future survival, controlling for firm size and unobserved firm heterogeneity. Based on firm-level data in Japan for 1995-002, we found that firms did not face "sudden death" but there was a "shadow of death." Future exiting firms had lower performance five years before their exit. Moreover, unobserved firm heterogeneity had a statistically significant effect on firm survival analysis. However, we also found that the effects of unobserved heterogeneity were not very large and thus did not reverse the conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Discussion papers 06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:06033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/06e033.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    2. Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2016. "Multinational Companies, Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT, chapter 16, pages 289-303, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Matthias Almus, 2004. "The Shadow of Death -- An Emperical Analysis of the Pre-Exit Performance of New German Firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 189-201, October.
    4. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Blake, David, 1999. "The hazards of mutual fund underperformance: A Cox regression analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-152, April.
    5. Marvin B. Lieberman, 1990. "Exit from Declining Industries: "Shakeout" or "Stakeout"?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(4), pages 538-554, Winter.
    6. Kimura, Fukunari & Fujii, Takamune, 2003. "Globalizing activities and the rate of survival:: Panel data analysis on Japanese firms," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 538-560, December.
    7. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2007. "The unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(1), pages 87-99.
    8. Kyoji Fukao & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2006. "Why Did Japan'S Tfp Growth Slow Down In The Lost Decade? An Empirical Analysis Based On Firm‐Level Data Of Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 195-228, June.
    9. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    10. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
    11. Dolton, Peter J & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 1995. "Leaving Teaching in the UK: A Duration Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 431-444, March.
    12. Robert H. McGuckin & Sang V. Nguyen, 1995. "On Productivity and Plant Ownership Change: New Evidence from the Longitudinal Research Database," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(2), pages 257-276, Summer.
    13. Kiyota, Kozo & Okazaki, Tetsuji, 2005. "Foreign technology acquisition policy and firm performance in Japan, 1957-1970: Micro-aspects of industrial policy," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 563-586, September.
    14. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    15. David Good & M. Nadiri & Lars-Hendrik Röller & Robin Sickles, 1993. "Efficiency and productivity growth comparisons of European and U.S. Air carriers: A first look at the data," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 115-125, June.
    16. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    17. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    18. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    19. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
    20. Richard Disney & Jonathan Haskel & Ylva Heden, 2003. "Entry, Exit and Establishment Survival in UK Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, March.
    21. McGuckin, Robert H & Nguyen, Sang V, 1993. "Post-reform Industrial Productivity Performance of China: New Evidence from the 1985 Industrial Census Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 323-341, July.
    22. Dunne, Timothy & Klimek, Shawn D. & Roberts, Mark J., 2005. "Exit from regional manufacturing markets: The role of entrant experience," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(5-6), pages 399-421, June.
    23. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    24. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
    25. Honjo, Yuji, 2000. "Business failure of new firms: an empirical analysis using a multiplicative hazards model," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 557-574, May.
    26. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    27. Griliches, Zvi & Regev, Haim, 1995. "Firm productivity in Israeli industry 1979-1988," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 175-203, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré & Lionel Nesta, 2006. "Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 319-349.
    2. HOSONO Kaoru, 2009. "Financial Crisis, Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Productivity in Japan," Discussion papers 09012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7185 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Daniel Fackler & Claus Schnabel & Joachim Wagner, 2014. "Lingering illness or sudden death? Pre-exit employment developments in German establishments," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 23(4), pages 1121-1140.
    5. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2014. "The pre-exit performance of German plants - How long is the 'shadow of death'?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1644, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Bontemps, Christophe & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Simioni, Michel, 2012. "Quality Labels and Firm Survival in the French Cheese Industry," TSE Working Papers 12-335, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. KAWAKAMI Atsushi & MIYAGAWA Tsutomu & TAKIZAWA Miho, 2011. "Revisiting Productivity Differences and Firm Turnover: Evidence from product-based TFP measures in the Japanese manufacturing industries," Discussion papers 11064, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Alex Coad & Masatoshi Kato, 2021. "Growth paths and routes to exit: 'shadow of death' effects for new firms in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1173, October.
    9. Redha Fares & Amélie Guillin, 2022. "R&D expenditures and firm survival," Erudite Working Paper 2022-04, Erudite.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7186 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Redha Fares & Amélie Guillin & Claude Mathieu, 2020. "Failing and exporting firms: a paradox?," Erudite Working Paper 2020-08, Erudite.
    12. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & OIKAWA Koki & UEDA Kozo, 2022. "Misallocation under the Shadow of Death," Discussion papers 22014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7186 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Redha Fares, 2022. "Bankruptcy, Performance and Market Selection: Evidence from Firms in France," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph22-01 edited by Claude Mathieu.
    15. Bontemps, Christophe & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Simioni, Michel, 2011. "Quality Labels and Firm Survival in the Food Industry," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114263, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7185 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard I.D. Harris & Qian Cher Li, "undated". "Export-market dynamics and the probability of firm closure: Evidence for the UK," Working Papers 2008_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Kneller, Richard & McGowan, Danny & Inui, Tomohiko & Matsuura, Toshiyuki, 2012. "Globalisation, multinationals and productivity in Japan’s lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 110-128.
    3. FERRAGINA, Anna Maria, 2013. "The Impact of FDI on Firm Survival and Employment: A Comparative Analysis for Turkey and Italy," CELPE Discussion Papers 127, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    4. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2494, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Richard Kneller & Danny McGowan & Tomohiko Inui & Toshiyuki Matsuura, 2012. "Closure within multi-plant firms: evidence from Japan," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(4), pages 647-668, December.
    6. David Greenaway & Joakim Gullstrand & Richard Kneller, 2009. "Live or Let Die? Alternative Routes to Industry Exit," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 317-337, July.
    7. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9291, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Richard I. D. Harris & Qian Cher Li, 2010. "Export‐Market Dynamics And The Probability Of Firm Closure: Evidence For The United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 145-168, May.
    9. Carla Daniela Calá & Miguel Manjón-Antolín & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2017. "Regional Determinants of Exit Across Firms’ Size: Evidence from Argentina," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(6), pages 768-785, December.
    10. Andrew B Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2007. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 193-204, May.
    11. Calá, Carla Daniela & Manjón-Antolín, Miguel & Arauzo-Carod, Josep-Maria, 2017. "Regional determinants of exit across firms' size: evidence from a developing country," Nülan. Deposited Documents 2548, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    12. Uchida, Hirofumi, 2020. "Natural selection: A review of studies on firms’ exit and efficiency," MPRA Paper 103938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Rosanna Pittiglio & Filippo Reganati, 2015. "Multinational Enterprises, Technological Intensity and Firm Survival. Evidence from Italian Manufacturing and Services Firms," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 87-106, March.
    14. Ferragina, Anna & Pittiglio, Rosanna & Reganati, Filippo, 2012. "Multinational status and firm exit in the Italian manufacturing and service sectors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 363-372.
    15. Christos Genakos & Ioannis Kaplanis & Maria Theano Tagaraki & Aggelos Tsakanikas, 2023. "Firm Resilience and Growth during the Economics Crisis: lessons from the Greek depression," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 186, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    16. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    17. Holger Görg & Marina-Eliza Spaliara, 2014. "Financial Health, Exports and Firm Survival: Evidence from UK and French Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(323), pages 419-444, July.
    18. Martyn Andrews & Lutz Bellmann & Thorsten Schank & Richard Upward, 2012. "Foreign-owned plants and job security," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(1), pages 89-117, April.
    19. Doan Thi Thanh Ha & Kozo Kiyota, 2014. "Firm-Level Evidence on Productivity Differentials and Turnover in Vietnamese Manufacturing," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(2), pages 193-217, June.
    20. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré & Lionel Nesta, 2006. "Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 319-349.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:06033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.