[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Macroeconomics of the Gold Economy in Sudan

Author

Listed:
  • Ibrahim Elbadawi
  • Kabbashi Suliman

    (Department of Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan)

Abstract
After the secession of South Sudan and the resultant drop in oil exports, Sudan has enjoyed a surge in gold exports, dominated by vast networks of artisanal and small-scale informal mining operations. A combination of fiscally dominated monetary policy and stifling foreign exchange gap prompted the government to pursue a policy of large scale gold purchases by the Central Bank, almost all financed by printing money. We argued in this paper that such policy has resulted in a ‘resource curse’, manifested by short-term macroeconomic instability and medium-term loss of competitiveness. To substantiate the argument, the paper developed a simple game-theoretic rational expectations macroeconomic model, where the payoffs associated with the strategic behavior of individual gold’s traders are used to define the Bank’s problem. The results suggested that the Bank’s monetary policy was largely influenced by the international gold price, the social tolerance for high inflation and the public sector borrowing requirements that rendered it ineffective for anchoring inflation expectations. Also, we found that higher international gold prices and the probability of successful gold’s smuggling lead to higher domestic gold pricing by the Bank. Moreover, we showed that the Bank’s gold dealership and the chosen mode of financing has caused short term inflationary spiral, excessive nominal exchange rate devaluation and medium to longer term real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, we recommend that the gold dealership should be operated by a fiscal authority, rather than the Bank, and be part of a macroeconomic framework based on economic diversification and geared towards stabilization of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim Elbadawi & Kabbashi Suliman, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of the Gold Economy in Sudan," Working Papers 1203, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Jun 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/1203_Final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bit.ly/2xZlnMn
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1986. "Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 3-33, September.
    5. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    6. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 877-888, December.
    7. Ibrahim A. Elbadawi, 1997. "The Parallel Market Premium for Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Policy in Sudan," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Miguel A. Kiguel & J. Saul Lizondo & Stephen A. O’Connell (ed.), Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, chapter 6, pages 221-246, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    2. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    3. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2024. "Agri‐food trade channel and the ASEAN macroeconomic impacts from output and price shocks," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 5-26, January.
    5. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    6. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    7. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    8. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    9. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    10. Ann Cavlovic & Kathleen Day, "undated". "Equalization and the Incentives for Growth: An Empirical Investigation of the "Tax-Back" Effect," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-23, Department of Finance Canada.
    11. Assenmacher-Wesche, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2008. "A VECX* Model of the Swiss Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0809, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos & Andreas Yannopoulos, 2014. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European Countries: A VECMX* Analysis," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, volume 23, pages 185-216, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European countries: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-154.
    14. de Wet, Albertus H. & van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan, 2009. "Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1000-1011, September.
    15. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: A counterfactual analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-399.
    16. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    17. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Revisiting the effects of NAFTA," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.
    18. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 84.1-84.16.
    19. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián, 2015. "The effects of fiscal policy on the Spanish economy: Keynesian or non-Keynesian behavior?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1019-1048.
    20. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.