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Adjustment Difficulties and Debt Overhangs in the Eurozone Periphery

Author

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  • Gros, Daniel
  • Alcidi, Cinzia
Abstract
This paper describes four key drivers behind the adjustment difficulties in the periphery of the eurozone: • The adjustment will be particularly difficult for Greece and Portugal, as two relatively closed economies with low savings rates. Both of these countries combine high external debt levels with low growth rates, which suggest they are facing a solvency problem. In both countries fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition for overall sustainability, but it not sufficient by itself. A sharp cut in domestic consumption (or an unrealistically large jump in exports) is required to quickly establish external sustainability. An internal devaluation (a cut in nominal wages in the private sector) is unavoidable in the longer run. Without such this adjustment in the private sector, even continuing large-scale provision of official funding will not stave off default. • Ireland’s problems are different. They stem from the exceptionally large losses in the Irish banks, which were taken on by the national government, leading to an explosion of government debt. However, the Irish sovereign should be solvent because the country has little net foreign debt. • Spain faces a similar problem as Ireland, although its foreign debt is somewhat higher but its construction bubble has been less extreme. The government should thus also be solvent, although further losses in the banking system seem unavoidable. • Italy seems to have a better starting position on almost on all accounts. But its domestic savings rate has deteriorated substantially over the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2011. "Adjustment Difficulties and Debt Overhangs in the Eurozone Periphery," CEPS Papers 5525, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:5525
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gros, Daniel, 2015. "Puerto Rico and Greece: A tale of two defaults in a monetary union," CEPS Papers 10709, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "How to deal with macroeconomic imbalances?," CEPS Papers 7479, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    4. Eleonora Cutrini & Giorgio Galeazzi, 2017. "External Public Debt, Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1718-1749, September.
    5. Gros, Daniel, 2011. "External versus Domestic Debt in the Euro Crisis," CEPS Papers 5677, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Creedon, Conn & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Gaffney, Edward, 2012. "Ireland’s External Debt: Economic and Statistical Realities," Economic Letters 12/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Jonathan F Manning & Jesmin Rahman, 2013. "Rebalancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2013/074, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Barslund, Mikkel, 2015. "Greece’s poor growth prospects," CEPS Papers 10856, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    9. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?," CEPS Papers 6865, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros & Alcidi Cinzia & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Giovannini, 2014. "Exit State-of-play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," ROME Working Papers 201405, ROME Network.
    11. Gianluca Cafiso, 2014. "Debt Sustainability in the Case of External Debt. An Analysis Based on Italy's Treasury Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5021, CESifo.
    12. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Working Papers 1220, Banco de España.
    13. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Belke, Ansgar & Coutinho, Leonor & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2014. "State-of-Play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 482, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Gianluca Cafiso, 2013. "Public-Debt Financing in the case of External Debt," Working Papers 2013-37, CEPII research center.
    15. Roberto Tamborini, 2012. "Market opinions, fundamentals and the euro-sovereign debt crisis," Department of Economics Working Papers 1210, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    16. Roberto Tamborini, 2013. "The new fiscal rules for the EMU. Threats from heterogeneity and interdependence," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(3), pages 415-436, December.
    17. Collignon, Stefan & Esposito, Piero, 2021. "Macroeconomic imbalances in Europe: How to overcome the fallacy of unit labour costs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 673-691.
    18. Eleonora Cutrini and Giorgio Galeazzi, 2014. "Contagion in the Euro crisis: capital flows and trade linkages," Working Papers 44-2014, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2014.

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