[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2019-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global economic and environmental outcomes of the Paris Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Weifeng Liu
  • Warwick McKibbin
  • Adele Morris
  • Peter J Wilcoxen
Abstract
In this paper, we use a multi-region model of the world economy to analyze the economic and environmental outcomes that are likely to result from Paris Climate Agreement. To construct the modeling scenario, we convert the disparate emission targets for each country or region in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) formulations into estimated reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a baseline scenario with no new climate policies. We then solve for the tax rate path on CO2 in each region that achieves the NDC-consistent emissions reductions in the target year, 2030 for most regions. We find that if all regions achieve their NDCs, the Paris Agreement significantly reduces CO2 emissions relative to baseline. However, the Paris policy scenario suggests that global CO2 emissions would not decline in absolute terms relative to 2015 levels, let alone follow a path consistent with a 2°C stabilization scenario. Comparing projected 2030 CO2 tax rates to the same year’s percent emissions abatement relative to baseline, we find that declines in CO2 emissions do not necessarily correlate with the CO2 tax rate. We find the climate policies result in significant macroeconomic spillovers across the global economy, meaning that macroeconomic outcomes across countries depend not only on their own commitments but also on those of the rest of the world. We also explore how outcomes could change if select countries (United States, China and Australia) unilaterally withdraw from the agreement and undertake no new climate policies. We find that non-participation leads to economic gains (in terms of GDP) for these countries relative to participating, illustrating the challenge of forging an international agreement with participation by all major emitters and fossil fuel producers. However, we also find that if we account for the monetized climate and domestic cobenefits of emissions reductions, those countries, including Australia, are worse off if they unilaterally withdraw from the Paris Agreement than if they participate. Thus, although we find there are gross costs to participating, doing so generates net benefits for the individual country participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Weifeng Liu & Warwick McKibbin & Adele Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen, 2019. "Global economic and environmental outcomes of the Paris Agreement," CAMA Working Papers 2019-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-01/4_2019_liu_mckibbin_morris_wilcoxen_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yunguang Chen & Marc A. C. Hafstead, 2019. "Using A Carbon Tax To Meet Us International Climate Pledges," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Alison Stegman & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2013. "Long term Projections of the World Economy – A Review," CAMA Working Papers 2013-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Hof, Andries F. & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Admiraal, Annemiek & Roelfsema, Mark & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2017. "Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2°C and 1.5°C," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 30-40.
    5. James R. Mcfarland & Allen A. Fawcett & Adele C. Morris & John M. Reilly & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2018. "Overview Of The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-37, February.
    6. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    7. Ian Parry & Chandara Veung & Dirk Heine, 2015. "How Much Carbon Pricing Is In Countries’ Own Interests? The Critical Role Of Co-Benefits," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Alexander R. Barron & Allen A. Fawcett & Marc A. C. Hafstead & James R. Mcfarland & Adele C. Morris, 2018. "Policy Insights From The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-47, February.
    9. Ian Parry & Victor Mylonas & Nate Vernon, 2021. "Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 797-823.
    10. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Comparing emissions mitigation efforts across countries," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 501-515, May.
    11. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Convergence and Modernisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 911-942, June.
    12. Qi, Tianyu & Winchester, Niven & Karplus, Valerie J. & Zhang, Da & Zhang, Xiliang, 2016. "An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 650-660.
    13. Ian W.H. Parry & Baoping Shang & Mr. Philippe Wingender & Nate Vernon-Lin & Tarun Narasimhan, 2016. "Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?," IMF Working Papers 2016/148, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Bianka Shoai Tehrani, 2017. "The analyses on the economic costs for achieving the nationally determined contributions and the expected global emission pathways," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 193-206, June.
    15. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 995-1068, Elsevier.
    16. Govinda R. Timilsina & Jing Cao & Mun Ho, 2018. "Carbon Tax For Achieving China’S Ndc: Simulations Of Some Design Features Using A Cge Model," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-17, August.
    17. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
    18. Mayrhofer, Jan P. & Gupta, Joyeeta, 2016. "The science and politics of co-benefits in climate policy," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 22-30.
    19. Warwick J. McKibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen & Yiyong Cai, 2015. "Carbon Taxes and U.S. Fiscal Reform," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 139-156, March.
    20. Mischke, Peggy & Karlsson, Kenneth B., 2014. "Modelling tools to evaluate China's future energy system – A review of the Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 132-143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian Parry & Victor Mylonas & Nate Vernon, 2021. "Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 797-823.
    2. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen & Weifeng Liu, 2018. "The Role Of Border Carbon Adjustments In A U.S. Carbon Tax," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-41, February.
    3. Thube, Sneha D. & Delzeit, Ruth & Henning, Christian H.C.A., 2022. "Economic gains from global cooperation in fulfilling climate pledges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Weifeng Liu & Warwick McKibbin, 2022. "Global macroeconomic impacts of demographic change," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 914-942, March.
    5. Piris-Cabezas, Pedro & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Leslie, Gabriela, 2023. "Estimating the potential of international carbon markets to increase global climate ambition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Patel, Dev & Sandefur, Justin & Subramanian, Arvind, 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Zhang, Xiaobei & Wang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Arnaud Deseau, 2023. "Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis?," AMSE Working Papers 2326, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. Huntington, Hillard & Liddle, Brantley, 2022. "How energy prices shape OECD economic growth: Panel evidence from multiple decades," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Eftimoski, Dimitar, 2022. "On the inconclusive effect of human capital on growth: A new look at extended specifications," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 708-727.
    11. Lee, Jong-Wha & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2018. "Service sector productivity and economic growth in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 247-263.
    12. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2020. "Convergence of GDP per capita in advanced countries over the twentieth century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2509-2526, November.
    13. Grafström, Jonas, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Divergence of Renewable Energy Invention Efforts in Europe," Ratio Working Papers 295, The Ratio Institute.
    14. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2016. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Working papers 588, Banque de France.
    15. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp2041 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Tran, Tuyen Quang & Van Vu, Huong, 2024. "The long-term effects of war on foreign direct investment and economic development: evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. James R. Mcfarland & Allen A. Fawcett & Adele C. Morris & John M. Reilly & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2018. "Overview Of The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-37, February.
    18. Sakari Lähdemäki, 2017. "Traditional convergence tests with Penn World Table 9.0," Working Papers 309, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    19. Yiyong Cai & Yingying Lu & David Newth & Alison Stegman, 2013. "Modelling Complex Emissions Intensity Targets with a Simple Simulation Algorithm," CAMA Working Papers 2013-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Carlos Mendez & Felipe Santos-Marquez, 2022. "Economic and Social Disparities across Subnational Regions of South America: A Spatial Convergence Approach," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 582-605, December.
    21. Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene & Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, 2020. "Productivity Convergence : Is Anyone Catching Up?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9378, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; Paris Climate Agreement; global macroeconomic modeling; G-Cubed; carbon taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.