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Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord

Author

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin
  • Adele C. Morris
  • Peter J. Wilcoxen
Abstract
The political accord struck by world leaders at the United Nations negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 allows participating countries to express their greenhouse gas commitments in a variety of ways. For example, developed countries promised different percent emissions reductions relative to different base years by 2020. China and India committed to reducing their emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) relative to 2005 by 40 and 20 percent respectively. Such flexibility promotes consensus by allowing each country to use its preferred commitment formulation. However, the disparate approaches and widely varying baseline trends across different economies complicate comparing the likely emissions reductions and economic efforts required to achieve the commitments. This paper provides such a comparison by analyzing the Copenhagen targets using the G-Cubed model of the global economy. We begin by formulating a no-policy baseline projection for major world economies. We then model the Copenhagen Accord’s economy-wide commitments, with a focus on fossil-fuel-related CO2. We show how different formulations make the same targets appear quite different in stringency, and we estimate and compare the likely economic and environmental performance of major emitters’ Copenhagen targets. The analysis also explores the spillover effects of emission reductions efforts on countries that did not adopt economy-wide emissions targets at Copenhagen.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2010. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord," CAMA Working Papers 2010-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2010-24
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/24_mckibbin_morris_wilcoxen_2010.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen emissions targets," Working Papers 249378, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Adele Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen & Yiyong Cai, 2009. "Consequences of alternative US cap-and-trade policies: Controlling both emissions and costs," CAMA Working Papers 2009-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2010. "Costs, Revenues, and Effectiveness of the Copenhagen Accord Emission Pledges for 2020," OECD Environment Working Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
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