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Development and Validation of Credit-Scoring Models

Author

Listed:
  • Glennon, Dennis

    (US Department of the Treasury)

  • Kiefer, Nicholas M.

    (Cornell U and US Department of the Treasury)

  • Larson, C. Erik
  • Choi, Hwan-sik

    (Cornell U and Fannie Mae)

Abstract
Accurate credit-granting decisions are crucial to the efficiency of the decentralized capital allocation mechanisms in modern market economies. Credit bureaus and many .nancial institutions have developed and used credit-scoring models to standardize and automate, to the extent possible, credit decisions. We build credit scoring models for bankcard markets using the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Risk Analysis Division (OCC/RAD) consumer credit database (CCDB). This unusu- ally rich data set allows us to evaluate a number of methods in common practice. We introduce, estimate, and validate our models, using both out-of-sample contempora- neous and future validation data sets. Model performance is compared using both separation and accuracy measures. A vendor-developed generic bureau-based score is also included in the model performance comparisons. Our results indicate that current industry practices, when carefully applied, can produce models that robustly rank-order potential borrowers both at the time of development and through the near future. However, these same methodologies are likely to fail when the the objective is to accurately estimate future rates of delinquency or probabilities of default for individual or groups of borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Glennon, Dennis & Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik & Choi, Hwan-sik, 2007. "Development and Validation of Credit-Scoring Models," Working Papers 07-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:corcae:07-12
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    File URL: https://cae.economics.cornell.edu/07-12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Venkat Srinivasan & Yong H. Kim, 1987. "Note---The Bierman-Hausman Credit Granting Model: A Note," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(10), pages 1361-1362, October.
    2. Harold Bierman, Jr. & Warren H. Hausman, 1970. "The Credit Granting Decision," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(8), pages 519-532, April.
    3. G. V. Kass, 1980. "An Exploratory Technique for Investigating Large Quantities of Categorical Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 119-127, June.
    4. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2006. "Specification and Informational Issues in Credit Scoring," Working Papers 06-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Butaru, Florentin & Chen, Qingqing & Clark, Brian & Das, Sanmay & Lo, Andrew W. & Siddique, Akhtar, 2016. "Risk and risk management in the credit card industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 218-239.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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