[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eca/wpaper/2013-174924.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

In the short run, energy efficiency concerns and trade protection hurt each other and growth, but in the long run, not necessarily so: 1980-2010 Latin American Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Tsiotras
  • Antonio Estache
Abstract
The paper studies the 3-way causal relationships between energy consumption, output and trade for a sample of 15 Latin American countries over the period 1980 to 2010. The results of our panel cointegration and error-correction model based on GMM estimators highlight a unidirectional relationship running from energy use to real GDP (in the short and long run) and from energy use to exports (in the short run). This confirms earlier results for a smaller sample of countries in the region and shows that energy consumption cuts can have significant economic costs. In contrast to earlier results, we find that these conclusions are more robust in the short than in the long run, suggesting that if technological change (in particular energy efficiency improvements) is accounted for, the growth and trade costs of energy consumption cuts should be lower than often feared. Energy efficiency improvements appear to be happening. The case for energy efficiency improvements further increases with the finding that under current technologies, cutting energy consumption would hurt growth more than an import substitution policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Tsiotras & Antonio Estache, 2014. "In the short run, energy efficiency concerns and trade protection hurt each other and growth, but in the long run, not necessarily so: 1980-2010 Latin American Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/174924
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/174924/1/2014-38-TSIOTRAS_ESTACHE-shortrun.pdf
    File Function: 2014-38-TSIOTRAS_ESTACHE-shortrun
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khan, Saleheen & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2013. "The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-21.
    3. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324.
    4. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
    5. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    6. Jang Jin & Eden Yu, 1996. "Export-led growth and the US economy: another look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 341-344.
    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    9. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    12. Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2012. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis," Working Papers CIE 52, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    13. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    14. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    18. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
    19. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 739-749, September.
    21. Ghani, Gairuzazmi M., 2012. "Does trade liberalization effect energy consumption?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 285-290.
    22. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3640-3648.
    23. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "Export-led growth hypothesis for Australia: an empirical re-investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(7), pages 423-428.
    24. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 229-236, January.
    25. Waithe, Kimberly & Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian, 2010. "Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico," MPRA Paper 95557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    27. Payne, James E., 2010. "A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 723-731, March.
    28. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Cole, Matthew A., 2006. "Does trade liberalization increase national energy use?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 108-112, July.
    30. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
    31. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "On the dynamics of aggregate output, electricity consumption and exports in Malaysia: Evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1963-1971, June.
    32. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    33. Riad Sultan, 2012. "An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 225-237.
    34. James E. Payne, 2010. "Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 53-95, January.
    35. repec:idb:brikps:81081 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Muhammad Shakeel & M. Mazhar Iqbal & M. Tariq Majeed, 2014. "Energy Consumption, Trade and GDP: A Case Study of South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 461-476.
    37. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    38. Janesh Sami, 2011. "Multivariate Cointegration and Causality between Exports, Electricity Consumption and Real Income per Capita: Recent Evidence from Japan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(3), pages 59-68, November.
    39. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 889-898, February.
    40. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    41. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    42. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    43. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia, 2014. "Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-91.
    44. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shakeel, Muhammad, 2021. "Analyses of energy-GDP-export nexus: The way-forward," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Muhammad Shakeel & Aziz Ahmed, 2021. "Economic growth, exports, and role of energy conservation: Evidence from panel co-integration-based causality models in South Asia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(1), pages 3-24, February.
    3. Opeyemi E. Akinyemi & Evans S. Osabuohien & Philip O. Alege & Adeyemi A. Ogundipe, 2017. "Energy Security, Trade and Transition to Green Economy in Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 127-136.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    2. Qamruzzaman, Md & Jianguo, Wei, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between financial development, trade openness, foreign capital flows, and renewable energy consumption: Fresh evidence from panel NARDL investigation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 827-842.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ling, Chong Hui & Sbia, Rashid, 2014. "Causality between trade openness and energy consumption: What causes what in high, middle and low income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-143.
    4. Vera Vargas, Javier Alejandro & Kristjanpoller Rodríguez, Werner, 2016. "Causalidad de Granger entre composición de las exportaciones, crecimiento económico y producción de energía eléctrica: evidencia empírica para Latinoamérica," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 25-62, December.
    5. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    6. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    7. Javier Alejandro Vera Vargas & Werner Kristjanpoller Rodríguez, 2017. "Granger causality between exports, economic growth and electricity production: empirical evidence for Latin America," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 25-62, Enero - J.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Rasool, Ghulam & Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2016. "Considering the effect of biomass energy consumption on economic growth: Fresh evidence from BRICS region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1442-1450.
    9. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia, 2014. "Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-91.
    10. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sbia, Rashid & Chaibi, Anissa, 2014. "What does MENA region initially need: Grow output or mitigate CO2 emissions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 270-281.
    11. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "What is MENA Region Initially Needed: Grow Output or Mitigate CO2 Emissions?," MPRA Paper 48859, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2013.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-529 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Sabeen & Masood, Sameen, 2015. "The energy-growth nexus in Thailand: Does trade openness boost up energy consumption?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 265-274.
    14. Topcu, Mert & Payne, James E., 2018. "Further evidence on the trade-energy consumption nexus in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 160-165.
    15. Zheng Fang & Jiang Yu, 2020. "The role of human capital in energy-growth nexus: an international evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1225-1247, March.
    16. Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 739-749, September.
    17. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    18. Buhari Dogan & Osman Deger, 2016. "How Globalization and Economic Growth Affect Energy Consumption: Panel Data Analysis in the Sample of Brazil, Russia, India, China Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 806-813.
    19. Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Ben Youssef, Slim, 2015. "Output, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and international trade: Evidence from a panel of 69 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 799-808.
    20. Muhammad Shakeel & M. Mazhar Iqbal & M. Tariq Majeed, 2014. "Energy Consumption, Trade and GDP: A Case Study of South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 461-476.
    21. Acheampong, Alex O., 2018. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption: What causes what and where?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-692.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/174924. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/arulbbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.