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Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle

Author

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  • Daniel Tortorice

    (Department of Economics, Brandeis University)

Abstract
I compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment. I document three key facts. First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession even though the VAR predicts the fall in unemployment. Second, more people expect unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession than expect it to rise when it is rising at the beginning of a recession even though the VAR predicts these changes. Finally, the lag change in unemployment is almost as important as the VAR forecast in predicting the fraction of the population that expects unemployment to rise. Professional forecasters do not make these mistakes. Least squares learning or real time expectations do little to help explain these facts. However, delayed updating of expectations can explain some of these facts and extrapolative expectations explains these facts best. Individuals with higher income or education are only slightly less likely to make these expectational errors and those who makes these errors are 8-10 percent less likely to believe it is a good time to make a major purchase.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Tortorice, 2010. "Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 05, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Mar 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:05
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    2. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2021. "Temporary Overpessimism: Job Loss Expectations Following a Large Negative Employment Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 14149, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Escobari Diego & Mollick André Varella, 2013. "Output growth and unexpected government expenditures," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 481-513, September.
    5. Julian Emmler & Bernd Fitzenberger, 2022. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 621-661, July.
    6. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2019. "Can households see into the future? Survey evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 77-90.
    7. Marcel Garz, 2014. "Good news and bad news: evidence of media bias in unemployment reports," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 499-515, December.
    8. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    9. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    10. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Do people understand monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-123.
    12. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2018. "Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-79.
    13. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2021. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," IAB-Discussion Paper 202105, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    15. Basit Zafar & Theresa Kuchler, 2015. "Expectation Formation," 2015 Meeting Papers 678, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Schanne, Norbert, 2012. "The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201225, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brock Mendel, 2010. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 67-84, Fall.
    18. Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Sentiment; Rational Expectations; Business Fluctuations; Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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