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House price cycles in emerging economies

Author

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  • Alessio Ciarlone

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract
In this paper, I investigate the characteristics of house price dynamics for a sample of 16 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, over the period 1995-2011. Linking housing valuations to a set of conventional fundamental determinants � relative to both the supply and the demand side of the market, institutional factors and other asset prices � and modeling short-term price dynamics � which reflect gradual adjustment to underlying fundamentals � I draw conclusions about the existence, and the basic nature, of house price overvaluation (undervaluation). Overall, I find that actual house prices in the sample of emerging economies are not overly disconnected from fundamentals. Rather, they tend to reflect a somewhat slow adjustment to shocks to the latter. Moreover, the evidence that housing valuations may be driven by overly optimistic (or pessimistic) expectations is in general weak, even if this feature may have played a more prominent role up to the end of 2007, before the onset of the recent global real and financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 863, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_863_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    2. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    3. Elisabeth Beckmann, & Antje Hildebrandt & Krisztina Jäger-Gyovai, 2016. "Current risks in the CESEE residential property market: evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 4, pages v1, 103-1, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Dubravko Mihaljek & Agne Subelyte, 2014. "Do we understand what drives house prices?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 9, pages 147-170, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Elena IONAȘCU, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship Between The Residential Real Estate Markets, Macro – Economy And Institutional Development: Evidence From Eu Countries," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 75-107.
    6. Kwok-Chiu Lam, 2016. "The Responsiveness of Hong Kong Private Residential Housing Prices," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 26-36.
    7. Wang, Xiaodan & Li, Keyang & Wu, Jing, 2020. "House price index based on online listing information: The case of China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    9. George A. Matysiak & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2019. "A panel analysis of Polish regional cities: residential price convergence in the primary market," NBP Working Papers 316, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    10. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    11. Chun-Kei Tsang & Wing-Keung Wong & Ira Horowitz, 2016. "Arbitrage opportunities, efficiency, and the role of risk preferences in the Hong Kong property market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 735-754, October.
    12. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Marilena Mironiuc & Elena Ionașcu & Maria Carmen Huian & Alina Țaran, 2021. "Reflecting the Sustainability Dimensions on the Residential Real Estate Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-28, March.
    14. Krzysztof Olszewski & Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Laszek & Robert Leszczynski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2016. "On the dynamics of the primary housing market and the forecasting of house prices," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Elena IONASCU, 2017. "The CEE housing markets before, during and after the transition: an overview of property prices and home ownership rates," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9(3), pages 377-400, October.
    17. Antje Hildebrandt & Duy T. Huynh-Olesen & Katharina Steiner & Karin Wagner, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-76.
    18. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    19. Carmen Silva & Camilo Vio, 2015. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: evidence from Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 4-24, April.
    20. Tomal Mateusz, 2019. "The Impact of Macro Factors on Apartment Prices in Polish Counties: A Two-Stage Quantile Spatial Regression Approach," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(4), pages 1-14, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; housing market; emerging markets; panel co-integration; asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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