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International migration pressures in the long run

Author

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  • Rodolfo G. Campos

    (Banco de España)

Abstract
Using an empirical gravity model, I estimate the contribution of changes in relative labor supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and apply the resulting estimates to project future bilateral flows based on population forecasts by the United Nations. I extend the work of Hanson and McIntosh (2016) by including non-OECD destinations and project international migration flows for the whole world. In contrast to their findings, and despite of the slowdown of population growth in Latin America, the US will face sustained immigration pressures because of strong population growth in other regions of the world, leading to a projected immigrant stock that grows for decades to come. For the world as a whole, international migrants are projected to increase from 2.8% of total world population in 2010 to 3.5% in 2050, with a substantial increase of migrants originating from India and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo G. Campos, 2017. "International migration pressures in the long run," Working Papers 1734, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1734
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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/17/Fich/dt1734e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Frédéric Docquier & Giovanni Peri & Ilse Ruyssen, 2016. "The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 12, pages 361-423, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, September.
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    8. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    9. Gordon Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2016. "Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 57-82, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Berganza & Rodolfo Campos & Enrique Martínez Casillas & Javier Pérez, 2020. "The end of the demographic dividend in Latin America: challenges for economic and social policies," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 1/2020.
    2. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Quy Van Khuc & Minh-Hoang Nguyen & Tam-Tri Le & Truc-Le Nguyen & Thuy Nguyen & Hoang Khac Lich & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2022. "Brain Drain out of the Blue: Pollution-Induced Migration in Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-20, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; gravity model; population growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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