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Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates

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  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos
  • Márcio I. Nakane
Abstract
Despite the difficulties involved in the precise determination of equilibrium real interest rates, it seems clear that nominal interest rates has been higher in Brazil than in similar emerging economies. This paper aims to shed light on the possible reasons for this feature of the Brazilian economy. We extend Miranda and Muinhos (2003) one-country study to a sample of 20 countries, using many methods to compare measures of the real interest: (i) extracting equilibrium interest rates from IS curves; (ii) extracting steady state interest rates from marginal product of capital; (iii) capturing relevant variables and the fixed effects having real interest rates as dependent variable in a panel for emerging countries; and (iv) extracting inflation expectation from the spread between fixed rate and inflation-indexed treasure notes.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:101
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    Cited by:

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    5. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    6. Thereza Balliester Reis, 2018. "Why Are Policy Real Interest Rates So High in Brazil? An Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank of Brazil’s Real Interest Rate," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 178-198, April.
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    8. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Bo Yang, 2011. "Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    9. Ricardo Schechtman, 2017. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 235-282, June.
    10. Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1306-1314.
    11. Özer Depren & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Serpil Kılıç Depren, 2021. "Recent innovation in benchmark rates (BMR): evidence from influential factors on Turkish Lira Overnight Reference Interest Rate with machine learning algorithms," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Maria da Glória D. S. Araújo & Mirta Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo C. Silva, 2006. "The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output," Working Papers Series 103, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby & Joséte Florencio do Santos, 2006. "Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling," Working Papers Series 116, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Rodrigo Sekkel & Denisard Alves, 2010. "The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 1-10.
    16. Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2014. "Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2014/084, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Paulo Chananeco F. de Barcellos Neto & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2006. "The Natural Rate Of Interest In Brazil Between 1999 And 2005," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 84, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Barcellos, Paulo, 2009. "The Natural Rate of Interested in Brazil Between 1999 and 2005," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.
    19. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Bacha, Edmar & Holland, Marcio & Gonçalves, Fernando M., 2009. "High Interest Rates in Brazil: A Panel-Based Analysis," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(4), December.
    22. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. de Mello, 2006. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans," Working Papers Series 102, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    24. Márcio Holland & Edmar L. Bacha & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2007/294, International Monetary Fund.

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