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Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information

Author

Listed:
  • L. Marattin
  • S. Meraglia
Abstract
We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information about member states potential output and, therefore, output gap and (ii) bail-out among member states. In our framework, bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states (lenders). In the presence of asymmetric information, bail-out and national governments shortsightedness make the first-best fiscal rule non-implementable as member states are tempted to run excessively high deficits. The Monetary Union designs a mechanism such that member states with high output gap (i.e., in a recession) run higher budget deficits by making an ex-post transfer to the Union. We find that the first-best deficit is contingent on the cycle i.e., on the member state s output gap and, all else equal, can be implemented provided the member states ability to repay its own debt upon the realization of a bad shock is sufficiently high. A downward distortion in the deficit run by a member state during an expansion is otherwise introduced. Finally, the Monetary Union cannot discriminate among types of borrowers when national governments are excessively shortsighted.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Marattin & S. Meraglia, 2015. "Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers wp1018, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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