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Short-Run Demand Relationships In The U.S. Fats And Oils Complex

Author

Listed:
  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Harper, Daniel C.
  • Schnepf, Randall D.
Abstract
Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. We consider short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, we utilize an inverse AIDS specification. Our analysis consists of two components. In the first, we utilize a smooth transition function to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system (IAIDS) that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the U.S. Our results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a rather rapid structural shift in the early 1990s. Although this shift generally made price flexibilities more elastic, differences in flexibilities across regimes are modest in most cases. Our results suggest that decreases in marginal valuations for most fats and oils in response to consumption increases are rather small. Scale flexibilities are relatively close to -1, suggesting near homothetic preferences for fats and oils. An important distinction occurs for lard and tallow, which exhibit a very elastic scale response. This suggests that scale increases in the consumption of edible fats and oils will significantly decrease consumers' marginal valuation of these animal fats. A second segment of our analysis considers dynamic extensions to the IAIDS model that recognize habit effects. Although nested hypothesis testing supports the dynamic specification over the static IAIDS model, price and scale flexibilities are quite similar to the static case.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodwin, Barry K. & Harper, Daniel C. & Schnepf, Randall D., 2000. "Short-Run Demand Relationships In The U.S. Fats And Oils Complex," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18942, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtci:18942
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18942
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    Cited by:

    1. Chapda Nana, Guy & Larue, Bruno & Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2012. "Regional integration and dynamic adjustments: Evidence from gross national product functions for Canada and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 246-264.
    2. Matthew T. Holt & Joseph V. Balagtas, 2009. "Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: An Application to Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1424-1431.
    3. Asche, Frank & Zhang, Dengjun, 2013. "Testing Structural Changes in the U.S. Whitefish Import Market: An Inverse Demand System Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 453-470, December.
    4. Rodriguez, Nestor & Eales, James S., 2015. "Structural Change via Threshold Effects: Estimating U.S. Meat Demand Using Smooth Transition Functions and the Effects of More Women in the Labor Force," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Roheim, Cathy A. & Zhang, Dengjun, 2018. "Sustainability certification and product substitutability: Evidence from the seafood market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 92-100.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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