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Long-term effects of population growth on aggregate investment dynamics: selected country evidence for Africa

Author

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  • Asongu Simplice

    (Yaoundé/Cameroun)

Abstract
Purpose – Our generation is witnessing the greatest demographic transition and Africa is at the heart of it. There is mounting concern over corresponding rising unemployment and depleting per capita income. I examine the issues in this paper from a long-run perspective by assessing the relationships between population growth and a plethora of investment dynamics: public, private, foreign and domestic investments. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregressive models in the perspectives of vector error correction and short-run Granger causality are used. Findings – In the long-run population growth will: (1) decrease foreign and public investments in Ivory Coast; (2) increase public and private investments in Swaziland; (3) deplete public investment but augment domestic investment in Zambia; (4) diminish private investment and improve domestic investment in the Congo Republic and Sudan respectively. Practical implications – Mainstream positive linkage of population growth to investment growth in the long-term should be treated with extreme caution. Policy orientation should not be blanket, but contingent on country-specific trends and tailored differently across countries. The findings stress the need for the creation of a conducive investment climate (and ease of doing business) for private and foreign investments. Family planning and birth control policies could also be considered in countries with little future investment avenues. Originality/value – The objective of this study is to provide policy makers with some insights on how future investment opportunities could help manage rising population growth and corresponding unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Asongu Simplice, 2011. "Long-term effects of population growth on aggregate investment dynamics: selected country evidence for Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 11/001, African Governance and Development Institute..
    • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:11/001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Linkages between investment flows and financial development: causality evidence from selected African countries," MPRA Paper 38719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    19. Asongu Simplice, 2011. "Government Quality Determinants of Stock Market Performance in African Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 11/019, African Governance and Development Institute..
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "Determinants of Health Professionals’ Migration in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 12/009, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Asongu, Simplice, 2014. "Reinventing foreign aid for inclusive and sustainable development: a survey," MPRA Paper 65300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Akpan, Uduak & Isihak, Salisu & Asongu, Simplice, 2014. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Fast-Growing Economies: A Study of BRICS and MINT," MPRA Paper 56810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Simplice Asongu, 2016. "Reinventing Foreign Aid For Inclusive And Sustainable Development: Kuznets, Piketty And The Great Policy Reversal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 736-755, September.
    5. Simplice A, Asongu, 2011. "Deforestation and welfare : evidence from Africa," MPRA Paper 35161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Brian A. Jingwa, 2012. "Population growth and forest sustainability in Africa," International Journal of Green Economics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 145-166.
    7. Zainab Jehan & Faiza Azhar Khan, 2020. "Demographic Changes and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Capital Stock," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 155-178.
    8. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 276-289, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Investment; Human capital; Causality; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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