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Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Bollerslev
  • Hao Zhou

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract
We find that the difference between implied and realized variation, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain more than fifteen percent of the ex-post time series variation in quarterly excess returns on the market portfolio over the 1990 to 2005 sample period, with high (low) premia predicting high (low) future returns. The magnitude of the return predictability of the variance risk premium easily dominates that afforded by standard predictor variables like the P/E ratio, the dividend yield, the default spread, and the consumption-wealth ratio (CAY). Moreover, combining the variance risk premium with the P/E ratio results in an R2 for the quarterly returns of more than twenty-five percent. The results depend crucially on the use of “model-free”, as opposed to standard Black-Scholes, implied variances, and realized variances constructed from high-frequency intraday, as opposed to daily, data. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in both risk-aversion and volatility-risk play an important role in determining stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2007-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return Predictability; Implied Variance; Realized Variance; Equity Risk Premium; Variance Risk Premium; Time-Varying Risk Aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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