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Is Market Fear Persistent? A Long-Memory Analysis

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Gil-Alana
  • Alex Plastun
Abstract
This paper investigates the degree of persistence of market fear. Specifically, two different long-memory approaches (R/S analysis with the Hurst exponent method and fractional integration) are used to analyse persistence of the VIX index over the sample period 2004-2016, as well as some sub-periods (pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis). The findings indicate that its properties change over time: in normal periods it exhibits anti-persistence (there is a negative correlation between its past and future values), whilst during crisis period the level of persistence is increasing. These results can be informative about the nature of financial bubbles and anti-bubbles, and provide evidence on whether there exist market inefficiencies that could be exploited to make abnormal profits by designing appropriate trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2017. "Is Market Fear Persistent? A Long-Memory Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6534, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6534
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty in Financial Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, February.
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    3. Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo, 2022. "The persistence of financial volatility after COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Persistence of economic uncertainty: a comprehensive analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(41), pages 4477-4498, September.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2020. "Volatility persistence in the Russian stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2020. "An idea of risk-neutral momentum and market fear," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Poza, Carlos, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the degree of persistence of US stock prices and bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 118-123.
    9. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    10. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Credit risk interdependence in global financial markets: Evidence from three regions using multiple and partial wavelet approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    12. Wolfgang Schadner, 2019. "Risk-Neutral Momentum and Market Fear," Working Papers on Finance 1915, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    13. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2021. "On the persistence of market sentiment: A multifractal fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    14. Han, Bingyan & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2021. "Merton’s portfolio problem under Volterra Heston model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market fear; VIX; persistence; long memory; R; S analysis; fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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