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Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?

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  • Bart Cockx
  • Matteo Picchio
Abstract
This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2569, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2569
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    event history model; transition data; state dependence; short-lived jobs; stepping stone effect; long-lasting jobs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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