[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cer/papers/wp675.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue

Author

Listed:
  • Max Gillman
Abstract
This paper provides a general equilibrium model of income tax evasion. As functions of the share of income reported, the paper contributes an analytic derivation of the tax elasticity of taxable income, the welfare cost of the tax, and government revenue as a percent of output. It shows how an increase in the tax rate causes the tax elasticity and welfare cost to increase in magnitude by more than with zero evasion. Keeping constant the ratio of income tax revenue to output, as shown to be consistent with certain US evidence, a rising productivity of the goods sector induces less evasion and thereby allows tax rate reduction. The paper derives conditions for a stable share of income tax revenue in output with dependence upon the tax elasticity of reporting income. Examples are provided with less and more productive economies in terms of the tax elasticity of reported income, the welfare cost of taxation and the tax revenue as a percent of output, with sensitivity analysis with respect to leisure preference and goods productivity. Discussion focuses on how the tax evasion analysis may help explain such Öscal tax policy as the postwar US income tax rate reductions with discussion of tax acts and government Öscal multipliers. Fiscal policy with tax evasion included shows how tax rate reduction induces less tax evasion, a lower welfare cost of taxation, and makes for a stable income tax share of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman, 2020. "Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp675, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp675
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp675.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stokey, Nancy L & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 519-550, June.
    2. Annette Alstadsæter & Wojciech Kopczuk & Kjetil Telle, 2019. "Social networks and tax avoidance: evidence from a well-defined Norwegian tax shelter," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(6), pages 1291-1328, December.
    3. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2010. "A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 765-779, April.
    4. Joel Slemrod, 2018. "Is This Tax Reform, or Just Confusion?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    5. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Klepper, Steven & Nagin, Daniel, 1989. "The Anatomy of Tax Evasion," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, Spring.
    7. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 668-687, July.
    8. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Annette Alstadsæter & Niels Johannesen & Gabriel Zucman, 2019. "Tax Evasion and Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2073-2103, June.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    11. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2000. "Fiscal policy, elastic labor supply, and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 185-210, February.
    12. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    13. Hans A. Holter & Dirk Krueger & Serhiy Stepanchuk, 2019. "How do tax progressivity and household heterogeneity affect Laffer curves?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1317-1356, November.
    14. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    15. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 504-554, June.
    16. Azacis, Helmuts & Gillman, Max, 2010. "Flat tax reform: The Baltics 2000-2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 692-708, June.
    17. Jukka Pirttilä & Finn Tarp, 2019. "Public economics and development action: an introduction to a special issue in International Tax and Public Finance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 967-971, October.
    18. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1281-1293, September.
    19. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    20. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    21. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    22. Gillman Max, 2020. "The welfare cost of inflation with banking time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-20, January.
    23. James M. Poterba, 2011. "Economic Analysis of Tax Expenditures," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote08-2.
    24. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    25. Auerbach, Alan J., 2002. "The Bush Tax Cut and National Saving," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 387-407, September.
    26. Kopczuk, Wojciech, 2005. "Tax bases, tax rates and the elasticity of reported income," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(11-12), pages 2093-2119, December.
    27. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    28. Clark, Jeffrey A, 1984. "Estimation of Economies of Scale in Banking Using a Generalized Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 53-68, February.
    29. Peter Egger & Doina Radulescu & Nora Strecker, 2013. "Effective labor taxation and the international location of headquarters," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(4), pages 631-652, August.
    30. Hancock, Diana, 1985. "The Financial Firm: Production with Monetary and Nonmonetary Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 859-880, October.
    31. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Tax Avoidance And The Deadweight Loss Of The Income Tax," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 674-680, November.
    32. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    33. Facundo Alvaredo & Lucas Chancel & Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts," Post-Print halshs-03342488, HAL.
    34. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    35. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 1-74.
    36. Poterba, James M., 2011. "Introduction: Economic Analysis of Tax Expenditures," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 451-457, June.
    37. Sandmo, Agnar, 2005. "The Theory of Tax Evasion: A Retrospective View," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 58(4), pages 643-663, December.
    38. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity-Induced Tax Rate Reduction," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 42-79.
    39. William G. Gale & Samuel Brown, 2013. "Tax Reform for Growth, Equity, and Revenue," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(6), pages 721-754, November.
    40. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    41. Isaac Ehrlich, 1996. "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, Winter.
    42. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    43. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    44. Degryse, Hans & Kim, Moshe & Ongena, Steven, 2009. "Microeconometrics of Banking Methods, Applications, and Results," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195340471.
    45. Sealey, Calvin W, Jr & Lindley, James T, 1977. "Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1251-1266, September.
    46. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilard & Csabafi, Tamas, 2023. "Supply-side economics with AS-AD in Ramsey dynamic general equilibrium," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 505-531.
    2. Muhammad Omer Farooq Jajja & Arshad Ali Bhatti, 2022. "Tax Evasion, Low Tax Revenue and Non-Compliance in Pakistan: A Focused Group Discussion," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 289-298.
    3. Maria O. Kakaulina, 2021. "Projected shortfall in personal income tax revenues of regional governments in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(1), pages 39-54.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Max Gillman, 2020. "Technical Appendix: “Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenueâ€," Working Papers 1018, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    2. Gillman Max, 2020. "The welfare cost of inflation with banking time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Tax Evasion and Growth: a Banking Approach," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0806, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Max Gillman, 2018. "The Welfare Cost of Ináation with Banking Time," Working Papers 1014, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    5. Mbara, Gilbert & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Kokoszczynski, Ryszard, 2020. "Striking a balance: Optimal tax policy with labor market duality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    7. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2018. "Deficit, monetization, and economic growth: a case for multiplicity and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 819-853, June.
    8. Philipp Doerrenberg & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2017. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income in the Presence of Deduction Possibilities," NBER Chapters, in: Personal Income Taxation and Household Behavior (TAPES), National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Doerrenberg, Philipp & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2014. "Sufficient Statistic or Not? The Elasticity of Taxable Income in the Presence of Deduction Possibilities," IZA Discussion Papers 8554, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "Consumption Velocity in a Cash Costly-Credit Model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2010. "A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 765-779, April.
    12. Çule, Monika & Fulton, Murray, 2009. "Business culture and tax evasion: Why corruption and the unofficial economy can persist," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 811-822, December.
    13. Benk, Szil rd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Kemme, David M. & Parikh, Bhavik & Steigner, Tanja, 2020. "Tax Morale and International Tax Evasion," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(3).
    15. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2011. "Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Money and Banking Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 260-282, April.
    16. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity-Induced Tax Rate Reduction," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 42-79.
    17. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Banking Approach," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2008.
    18. Rubolino, Enrico, 2023. "Does weak enforcement deter tax progressivity?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. "Inflation, Financial Development and Human Capital-Based Endogenous Growth: an Explanation of Ten Empirical Findings," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0703, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    20. Kristoffer Berg & Thor O. Thoresen, 2020. "Problematic response margins in the estimation of the elasticity of taxable income," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(3), pages 721-752, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal evasion; tax law; welfare; tax elasticity; revenue; productivity; development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • K34 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Tax Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp675. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Vasiljevova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiacacz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.