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Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue

Author

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  • Max Gillman

    (1 University Blvd; University of Missouri – St. Louis; St. Louis, MO 63121)

Abstract
This paper provides a general equilibrium model of income tax evasion. As functions of the share of income reported, the paper contributes an analytic derivation of the tax elasticity of taxable income, the welfare cost of the tax, and government revenue as a percent of output. It shows how an increase in the tax rate causes the tax elasticity and welfare cost to increase in magnitude by more than with zero evasion. Keeping constant the ratio of income tax revenue to output, as shown to be consistent with certain US evidence, a rising productivity of the goods sector induces less evasion and thereby allows tax rate reduction. The paper derives conditions for a stable share of income tax revenue in output with dependence upon the tax elasticity of reporting income. Examples are provided with less and more productive economies in terms of the tax elasticity of reported income, the welfare cost of taxation and the tax revenue as a percent of output, with sensitivity analysis with respect to leisure preference and goods productivity. Discussion focuses on how the tax evasion analysis may help explain such fiscal tax policy as the postwar US income tax rate reductions with discussion of tax acts and government fiscal multipliers. Fiscal policy with tax evasion included shows how tax rate reduction induces less tax evasion, a lower welfare cost of taxation, and makes for a stable income tax share of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman, 2020. "Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2038, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:2038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Omer Farooq Jajja & Arshad Ali Bhatti, 2022. "Tax Evasion, Low Tax Revenue and Non-Compliance in Pakistan: A Focused Group Discussion," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 289-298.
    2. Maria O. Kakaulina, 2021. "Projected shortfall in personal income tax revenues of regional governments in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(1), pages 39-54.
    3. Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilard & Csabafi, Tamas, 2023. "Supply-side economics with AS-AD in Ramsey dynamic general equilibrium," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 505-531.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Evasion; Tax Law; Welfare; Tax Elasticity; Revenue; Productivity; Development.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • K34 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Tax Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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