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Globalization, trade imbalances and labor market adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro
  • Joao Paulo Pessoa
  • Ricardo Reyes-Heroles
  • Sharon Traiberman
Abstract
We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) Consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances; (b) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade costs, and inter-temporal preferences (savings gluts). We find that modeling trade imbalances changes both qualitatively and quantitatively the short- and long-run implications of globalization shocks for labor reallocation and unemployment dynamics. In a series of empirical applications, we study the labor market effects of shocks accrued to the global economy, their implications for the gains from trade, and we revisit the "China Shock" through the lens of our model. We show that the US enjoys a 2.2% gain in response to globalization shocks. These gains would have been 73% larger in the absence of the global savings glut, but they would have been 40% smaller in a balanced-trade world.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Joao Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2021. "Globalization, trade imbalances and labor market adjustment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1754, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1754
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2021-04-05 21:16:45

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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2020. "New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks," Working Papers 265, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    3. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "Globalization and Inequality in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 16363, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Caliendo, Lorenzo, 2023. "A comment on: Globalization, trade imbalances and inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 73-76.
    5. Xiangxu Meng & Dian Wang, 2024. "Income Distribution Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    7. Traiberman, Sharon & Rotemberg, Martin, 2023. "Precautionary protectionism," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Rafael Dix-Carneiro, 2019. "Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations," 2019 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "Trade and geography," CEP Discussion Papers dp1718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Dias, Lucas Cardoso Corrêa & Cícero, Vinicius Curti, 2024. "Donkey business: trade, resource exploitation, crime and violence in a contestable market," OSF Preprints qreum, Center for Open Science.
    11. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    12. Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Michael Benzaquen, 2024. "The Structure of Occupational Mobility in France," Papers 2407.14179, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    13. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Wang, Bei & Qian, Xuefeng & Li, Ying & Cao, Jia, 2024. "Pro-poor consumption effects of trade liberalization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Mariarosaria Comunale & Justas Dainauskas & Povilas Lastauskas, 2021. "What explains excess trade persistence? A theory of habits in the supply chains," CAMA Working Papers 2021-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Reprint of: Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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    Keywords

    global trade imbalances; labor market disruption;

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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