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Spurious Factor Analysis

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  • Onatski, A.
  • Wang, C.
Abstract
This paper draws parallels between the Principal Components Analysis of factorless high-dimensional nonstationary data and the classical spurious regression. We show that a few of the principal components of such data absorb nearly all the data variation. The corresponding scree plot suggests that the data contain a few factors, which is collaborated by the standard panel information criteria. Furthermore, the Dickey-Fuller tests of the unit root hypothesis applied to the estimated “idiosyncratic terms” often reject, creating an impression that a few factors are responsible for most of the non-stationarity in the data. We warn empirical researchers of these peculiar effects and suggest to always compare the analysis in levels with that in differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Onatski, A. & Wang, C., 2020. "Spurious Factor Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2003, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2003
    Note: ao319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Spurious Factor Analysis
      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2020-07-14 17:50:00

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    Cited by:

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    3. Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
    4. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    5. Rajveer Jat & Daanish Padha, 2024. "Kernel Three Pass Regression Filter," Papers 2405.07292, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    6. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    7. Hasan Isomitdinov & Vladimir Arčabić & Junsoo Lee & Youngjin Yun & James E. Payne, 2024. "International comovements of public debt," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 722-747, April.
    8. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Bo Zhang & Jiti Gao & Guangming Pan & Yanrong Yang, 2023. "Eigen-Analysis for High-Dimensional Time Series Clustering," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spurious regression; principal components; factor models; Karhunen-Loève expansion.;
    All these keywords.

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