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Informality and Macroeconomic Volatility: Do Credit Constraints Matter?

Author

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  • Catalina Granda Carvajal
Abstract
Hiding operations from tax collectors increases information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders and ultimately reduces firms' access to finance. However, credit-constrained entrepreneurs can still fund investment by paying it out of their own savings. This paper studies these implications of borrowing constraints characterizing the informal sector for macroeconomic volatility. To this end, the author develops a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring tax avoidance and evasion opportunities. In the model, registered production not only is the basis to determine tax liabilities, but also serves as collateral for securing debts. Such a framework allows for endogenization of the extent of undeclared activity, and for analyzing the effect of informality on aggregate fluctuations through computational experiments. These experiments show that the borrowing-constrained informal sector exerts a non-negligible influence on the cyclical volatility of consumption and investment. Some qualifications and extensions conclude this work. 1 Introduction - 2 The model - 3 Calibration - 4 Results - 5 Concluding remarks – References - Appendices

Suggested Citation

  • Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and Macroeconomic Volatility: Do Credit Constraints Matter?," Borradores Departamento de Economía 12506, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000196:012506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobón Orozco, David & Molina, Carlos & Vargas, Harvey, 2018. "Can environmental taxes and payments for ecosystem services regulate pollution when the resilience of water bodies is surpassed?," Borradores Departamento de Economía 17179, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    2. Oksana Omelchenko & Oleksandr Dorokhov & Oleg Kolodiziev & Liudmyla Dorokhova, 2018. "Fuzzy Modeling of the Creditworthiness Assessments of Bank’s Potential Borrowers in Ukraine," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 100-125.
    3. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Tax Evasion, Investment Shocks, and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 907-932, June.
    4. Chiarini, Bruno & Ferrara, Maria & Marzano, Elisabetta, 2022. "Tax evasion and financial accelerator: A corporate sector analysis for the US business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. García-Suaza, A & Gómez, M & Jaramillo, F, 2021. "Fiscal policy and informality in Colombia," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 19416, Alianza EFI.
    6. Colin C. Williams & Ioana Alexandra Horodnic & Jan Windebank, 2017. "Evaluating the internal dualism of the informal sector: evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(4), pages 605-616, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal economy; tax evasion; credit constraints; macroeconomic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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