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Un modelo RSDAIDS para las importaciones de madera de Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Alviar Ramirez
  • Medardo Restrepo Patiño
  • Santiago Gallón Gómez
Abstract
Resumen: Este trabajo presenta los resultados más importantes de un modelo de demanda de importaciones de productos maderables y sus implicaciónes para Colombia considerando el período 1980 1999. El modelo teórico usado es el desarrollado por Deaton y Muellbauer en 1980, denominado An Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Este modelo permite estimar funciones de demanda de importaciones y, al mismo tiempo, permite el cálculo de las elasticidades precio e ingreso de los diferentes tipos de producto que participan en un determinado mercado. La metodología de estimación está definida por el modelo denominado Seemingly Unrelated Regresión (SUR). El estudio muestra, de un lado, que Colombia, a pesar de tener un potencial forestal muy considerable aún está lejos de aparecer en las estadísticas internacionales como país exportador de maderas. De otro lado, si Colombia decidiera desarrollar el sector forestal, se enfrentaría a una competencia muy fuerte representada fundamentalmente por Canadá, y algunos países asiáticos. Las elasticidades muestran cómo, en el caso de la madera en tronco, la mayoría de los productos (madera en tronco por países) se comportan como bienes complementarios. Los signos de las elasticidades son los esperados, lo que permite concluir que el modelo se ajusta bastante bien a los datos. / Abstract: This paper presents the main results of a model of import demand of wood products in the U.S. and its implications for Colombia. The time length considered here was 1980-1999. The theoretical model used was developed by Deaton and Muellbauer in 1980 and it is called: An Almost Ideal Demand System. This model allows the estimation of price and income elasticities for different types of wood products. The methodology used consists of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SUR), popular in the econometrics literature. This paper shows, on one hand, that despite of the tremendous forest potential that Colombia has, its participation in international markets is negligible. On the other hand, if Colombia decided to develop the forest sector, it would have to face some strong competitors such as Canada and some Asian countries. The cross-price elasticities show that in the case of round wood the majority of countries behaves like complementary goods. The sign of the elasticities are the expected which allows to conclude that the model well fits the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Alviar Ramirez & Medardo Restrepo Patiño & Santiago Gallón Gómez, 2002. "Un modelo RSDAIDS para las importaciones de madera de Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para Colombia," Borradores del CIE 3687, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000099:003687
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henneberry, Shida Rastegari & Piewthongngam, Kullapapruk & Qiang, Han, 1999. "Consumer Food Safety Concerns And Fresh Produce Consumption," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Capps, Oral, Jr. & Tsai, Reyfong & Kirby, Raymond & Williams, Gary W., 1994. "A Comparison Of Demands For Meat Products In The Pacific Rim Region," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rojas Rivera, Angela Milena, 2011. "Political Competition in Dual Economies: Clientelism in Latin America," Borradores Departamento de Economía 8103, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    2. Tobón Orozco, David & Molina, Carlos & Vargas, Harvey, 2018. "Can environmental taxes and payments for ecosystem services regulate pollution when the resilience of water bodies is surpassed?," Borradores Departamento de Economía 17179, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    3. Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1095-1111, November.
    4. Rojas Rivera, Angela Milena & Molina Guerra, Carlos A., 2015. "A Comparative Analysis of Political Competition and Local Provision of Public Goods: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico(1991-2010)," MPRA Paper 67383, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2015.
    5. García Callejas, Danny, 2011. "Per Capita GDP Convergence in South America, 1960-2007," Borradores Departamento de Economía 8983, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    6. Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Gerhard Riener & Conny Wollbrant, 2013. "Tangible temptation in the social dilemma: Cash, cooperation, and self-control," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-13-04, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    7. Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 806, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Garcia Callejas, Danny, 2010. "Corruption, Economic Freedom and Political Freedom in South America: In Pursuit of the missing Link," Borradores Departamento de Economía 7336, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demanda de importaciones; productos maderables; coníferas; modelo RSAIDS; modelo SUR; elasticidades;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory

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